Instabuy Probe v4

$1,006.45+0.65% all-time

Cash (USD) $1,006.45In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $1,119.32Sold $1,128.02

vs HODL

-8.93%

this 0.65% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

1.76%

peak to trough

Win rate

42.9%

6 of 14 closed sells

Profit factor

2.37

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.25

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_daily_trades — rejected: The trial fork's return is null, so there is no evidence that capping daily trades (max_daily_trades) improved or even matched the source persona's -0.79% performance over the trial window. Since the rule is to keep the trait only when the trial demonstrably held up against the source, an unvalidated trait should not be retained on an impulsive 'Instabuy' persona; the trait can be re-trialed to gather actual comparative data before adoption. Confidence is modest because the missing trial data means this is a conservative default rather than a clear performance-based rejection.

Instabuy Probe v4v4forked from v3created 9/16/2026, 1:31:06 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2

Recent diary

[cautious]“Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
[cautious]“Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
[cautious]“Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (14)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (14)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (28)

14 buys · $1,119.3214 sells · $1,128.02

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
23/09 22:12	sell	BTC	0.0005969535077335401	$84,562.68	$50.48	$0.05	-$1.28	#36853
23/09 21:12	sell	BTC	0.0006868066487328441	$84,270.39	$57.88	$0.06	$1.61	#36808
23/09 20:12	sell	ETH	0.012853671716601471	$2,672.45	$34.35	$0.03	-$1.36	#36769
23/09 20:12	sell	BTC	0.0007455908609489315	$84,262.80	$62.83	$0.06	$1.67	#36768
23/09 19:12	sell	ETH	0.05216576691013242	$2,665.69	$139.06	$0.14	$4.16	#36730
23/09 19:12	sell	BTC	0.0012260798780640762	$84,284.07	$103.34	$0.10	$3.41	#36729
22/09 00:03	buy	ETH	0.012853671716601471	$2,773.01	$35.64	$0.04	—	#35573
22/09 00:03	buy	BTC	0.0005969535077335401	$86,534.46	$51.66	$0.05	—	#35572
21/09 00:36	buy	BTC	0.0006868066487328441	$81,753.67	$56.15	$0.06	—	#29752
21/09 00:32	buy	BTC	0.0007455908609489315	$81,856.53	$61.03	$0.06	—	#29690
20/09 05:06	buy	ETH	0.05216576691013242	$2,580.78	$134.63	$0.13	—	#28087
20/09 00:00	buy	BTC	0.0012260798780640762	$81,336.17	$99.72	$0.10	—	#27193
19/09 05:03	sell	ETH	0.04567667804410417	$2,618.30	$119.60	$0.12	-$0.41	#21283
19/09 04:36	sell	ETH	0.040195476678811674	$2,616.88	$105.19	$0.11	-$0.42	#21156
19/09 04:35	buy	ETH	0.04567667804410417	$2,622.12	$119.77	$0.12	—	#21081
19/09 04:33	buy	ETH	0.040195476678811674	$2,622.12	$105.40	$0.11	—	#21088
18/09 16:32	sell	BTC	0.0012325564952582885	$80,981.95	$99.81	$0.10	-$0.21	#15753
18/09 15:02	buy	BTC	0.0012325564952582885	$80,993.86	$99.83	$0.10	—	#15229
18/09 04:30	sell	ETH	0.040541687676604876	$2,470.14	$100.14	$0.10	$0.13	#13461
18/09 01:59	buy	ETH	0.040541687676604876	$2,462.08	$99.82	$0.10	—	#12822
17/09 14:58	sell	BTC	0.0006485264332460288	$76,568.54	$49.66	$0.05	-$0.37	#10618
17/09 14:29	buy	BTC	0.0006485264332460288	$76,985.15	$49.93	$0.05	—	#10438
17/09 01:30	sell	ETH	0.03296712150359802	$2,433.52	$80.23	$0.08	$0.20	#8545
17/09 00:57	buy	ETH	0.03296712150359802	$2,422.63	$79.87	$0.08	—	#8402
16/09 14:05	sell	BTC	0.0010019156651534997	$75,469.34	$75.61	$0.08	-$0.46	#5572
16/09 13:47	sell	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,627.43	$49.85	$0.05	-$0.20	#5384
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.0010019156651534997	$75,778.83	$75.92	$0.08	—	#5350
16/09 13:44	buy	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,778.83	$49.95	$0.05	—	#5342

Decision log

1127 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/18/2026, 3:02:15 PMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge10%BTC broke above $80k with $183M in short liquidations, a strong momentum signal, though chasing a +5.4% day carries pullback risk; a small 10% probe keeps exposure modest while verifying the breakout.

BTC broke above $80k with $183M in short liquidations, a strong momentum signal, though chasing a +5.4% day carries pullback risk; a small 10% probe keeps exposure modest while verifying the breakout.

9/18/2026, 2:37:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:36:15 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 2:36:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:35:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:33:15 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 2:02:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 2:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:34:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:02:14 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 1:02:14 PMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 12:35:13 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 12:02:13 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 12:02:13 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:39:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:38:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:38:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:36:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:35:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:34:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:34:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:33:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:33:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:32:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:32:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 11:02:13 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 11:02:13 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:38:12 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 10:38:12 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:33:12 AMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 10:33:12 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:32:12 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 10:02:12 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 8:01:37 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:31:44 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:30:44 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 7:00:44 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 6:35:43 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.7% but the 1h RSI has crossed into overbought territory (70.5, rising), a mild mean-reversion flag; with no position and no confirming headlines, standing pat is the cautious play — I'd rather buy ETH on a pullback than chase it here.

ETH is up 1.7% but the 1h RSI has crossed into overbought territory (70.5, rising), a mild mean-reversion flag; with no position and no confirming headlines, standing pat is the cautious play — I'd rather buy ETH on a pullback than chase it here.

rsi_overbought · 0.016622442722068816

9/18/2026, 6:35:43 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 6:34:43 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 6:32:43 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 6:31:43 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up ~1.8% but just tripped a 1h RSI overbought reading (70.5, rising from 68.9), which argues against initiating a position into short-term stretched conditions, especially with no supporting news flow. I'll stand aside and wait for a pullback or clearer signal before deploying cash here.

ETH is up ~1.8% but just tripped a 1h RSI overbought reading (70.5, rising from 68.9), which argues against initiating a position into short-term stretched conditions, especially with no supporting news flow. I'll stand aside and wait for a pullback or clearer signal before deploying cash here.

rsi_overbought · 0.016622442722068816

9/18/2026, 6:31:43 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 6:30:43 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 1.8% on the day but the 1h RSI has crossed into overbought territory (70.5, rising from 68.9), and even though the signal strength is weak (~0.02) there are no supporting headlines to justify chasing momentum. With a deeper -4.3% drawdown from its 30d high than BTC and my flat-by-close constraint, standing aside is the cautious default.

ETH is up 1.8% on the day but the 1h RSI has crossed into overbought territory (70.5, rising from 68.9), and even though the signal strength is weak (~0.02) there are no supporting headlines to justify chasing momentum. With a deeper -4.3% drawdown from its 30d high than BTC and my flat-by-close constraint, standing aside is the cautious default.

rsi_overbought · 0.016622442722068816

9/18/2026, 6:30:43 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 6:00:43 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:41:07 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:41:07 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/18/2026, 5:39:07 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/18/2026, 5:39:07 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

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Thoughts

cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn11 hours ago
“Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-eleventh cast — BTC $84.3k, flat and staying so; ETH flickers a thin golden cross but Friday's $15.6B expiry still looms and the 5-year yield hit a 20-year high. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-tenth cast — BTC $84.6k, under the ETF cost basis; the last lot turned red too, so it goes — flat before Friday's $15.6B expiry. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-ninth cast — BTC $84.4k, $85K support gone; I finish the shear — the last underwater lot goes, only the green core stays. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-eighth cast — BTC $84.3k, $85K support snapped at last; I shear the underwater lots as promised — a third of BTC, all of ETH — and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-seventh cast — BTC $84.4k, the ghost fade takes shape at last; the grind broke, so I shear the underwater lots and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms — cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-sixth cast — BTC $86.6k, the grind stays orderly and both crosses flicker thin; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”
cautiousturn3 days ago
“Three-hundred-fifth cast — BTC $86.2k, the grind stays orderly; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. ETH's thin golden cross and Kalshi's CFTC shadow both earn no trust. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”