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Instabuy Probe v4

$1,006.45+0.65% all-time
Cash (USD) $1,006.45In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $1,119.32Sold $1,128.02
vs HODL
-8.65%
this 0.65% · hodl 9.30%
Max drawdown
1.76%
peak to trough
Win rate
42.9%
6 of 14 closed sells
Profit factor
2.37
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.25
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_daily_trades — rejected: The trial fork's return is null, so there is no evidence that capping daily trades (max_daily_trades) improved or even matched the source persona's -0.79% performance over the trial window. Since the rule is to keep the trait only when the trial demonstrably held up against the source, an unvalidated trait should not be retained on an impulsive 'Instabuy' persona; the trait can be re-trialed to gather actual comparative data before adoption. Confidence is modest because the missing trial data means this is a conservative default rather than a clear performance-based rejection.
Instabuy Probe v4v4forked from v3created 9/16/2026, 1:31:06 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (14)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (14)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (28)

14 buys · $1,119.3214 sells · $1,128.02
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
23/09 22:12sellBTC0.0005969535077335401$84,562.68$50.48$0.05-$1.28#36853
23/09 21:12sellBTC0.0006868066487328441$84,270.39$57.88$0.06$1.61#36808
23/09 20:12sellETH0.012853671716601471$2,672.45$34.35$0.03-$1.36#36769
23/09 20:12sellBTC0.0007455908609489315$84,262.80$62.83$0.06$1.67#36768
23/09 19:12sellETH0.05216576691013242$2,665.69$139.06$0.14$4.16#36730
23/09 19:12sellBTC0.0012260798780640762$84,284.07$103.34$0.10$3.41#36729
22/09 00:03buyETH0.012853671716601471$2,773.01$35.64$0.04—#35573
22/09 00:03buyBTC0.0005969535077335401$86,534.46$51.66$0.05—#35572
21/09 00:36buyBTC0.0006868066487328441$81,753.67$56.15$0.06—#29752
21/09 00:32buyBTC0.0007455908609489315$81,856.53$61.03$0.06—#29690
20/09 05:06buyETH0.05216576691013242$2,580.78$134.63$0.13—#28087
20/09 00:00buyBTC0.0012260798780640762$81,336.17$99.72$0.10—#27193
19/09 05:03sellETH0.04567667804410417$2,618.30$119.60$0.12-$0.41#21283
19/09 04:36sellETH0.040195476678811674$2,616.88$105.19$0.11-$0.42#21156
19/09 04:35buyETH0.04567667804410417$2,622.12$119.77$0.12—#21081
19/09 04:33buyETH0.040195476678811674$2,622.12$105.40$0.11—#21088
18/09 16:32sellBTC0.0012325564952582885$80,981.95$99.81$0.10-$0.21#15753
18/09 15:02buyBTC0.0012325564952582885$80,993.86$99.83$0.10—#15229
18/09 04:30sellETH0.040541687676604876$2,470.14$100.14$0.10$0.13#13461
18/09 01:59buyETH0.040541687676604876$2,462.08$99.82$0.10—#12822
17/09 14:58sellBTC0.0006485264332460288$76,568.54$49.66$0.05-$0.37#10618
17/09 14:29buyBTC0.0006485264332460288$76,985.15$49.93$0.05—#10438
17/09 01:30sellETH0.03296712150359802$2,433.52$80.23$0.08$0.20#8545
17/09 00:57buyETH0.03296712150359802$2,422.63$79.87$0.08—#8402
16/09 14:05sellBTC0.0010019156651534997$75,469.34$75.61$0.08-$0.46#5572
16/09 13:47sellBTC0.0006591550428641446$75,627.43$49.85$0.05-$0.20#5384
16/09 13:45buyBTC0.0010019156651534997$75,778.83$75.92$0.08—#5350
16/09 13:44buyBTC0.0006591550428641446$75,778.83$49.95$0.05—#5342

Decision log

1127 decisions
custom range
→
9/19/2026, 6:39:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:38:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:38:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:37:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:37:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:36:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:36:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:35:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:35:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:34:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:34:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:33:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:33:25 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 6:03:25 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:39:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:38:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:37:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:37:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:36:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:36:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:35:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:35:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:34:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:33:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:03:24 AMETHturnsell70%LLM JudgePosition is essentially flat (-0.05% unrealized) and my mandate requires being flat by close with no weekend holds, so I exit the full ETH position despite the mildly bullish 4h golden cross; the 15m signal is negligible and I prefer to verify the build with a clean book.

Position is essentially flat (-0.05% unrealized) and my mandate requires being flat by close with no weekend holds, so I exit the full ETH position despite the mildly bullish 4h golden cross; the 15m signal is negligible and I prefer to verify the build with a clean book.

9/19/2026, 4:40:24 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH position is roughly flat (-0.26%) with a fresh 4h golden cross and 15m cross both mildly bullish; no reason to sell into strength, but momentum is early and I stay cautious.

ETH position is roughly flat (-0.26%) with a fresh 4h golden cross and 15m cross both mildly bullish; no reason to sell into strength, but momentum is early and I stay cautious.

ema_golden_cross · 0.4993182684156475ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.02836776307161196
9/19/2026, 4:39:24 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeAlready holding a small ETH position that's roughly flat; 4h and 15m golden crosses are supportive but the position is tiny and adding would concentrate risk. Hold and let the existing trend signal play out.

Already holding a small ETH position that's roughly flat; 4h and 15m golden crosses are supportive but the position is tiny and adding would concentrate risk. Hold and let the existing trend signal play out.

ema_golden_cross · 0.4993182684156475ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.02836776307161196
9/19/2026, 4:39:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:38:24 AMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is roughly flat (-0.26%) and ETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (0.50) plus a fresh 15m golden cross after +5.3% on the day; holding the current exposure rather than adding keeps daily trades within limits and avoids chasing a one-day pop.

Existing ETH position is roughly flat (-0.26%) and ETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (0.50) plus a fresh 15m golden cross after +5.3% on the day; holding the current exposure rather than adding keeps daily trades within limits and avoids chasing a one-day pop.

ema_golden_cross · 0.4993182684156475ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.02836776307161196
9/19/2026, 4:38:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:37:24 AMETHturnhold55%LLM JudgeExisting ETH position is roughly flat (-0.1%) and ETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (strength ~0.5) plus a fresh 15m golden cross, with price up 5.5% in 24h. No reason to sell into strength; holding the current position rather than adding keeps daily trades within limits.

Existing ETH position is roughly flat (-0.1%) and ETH shows the stronger 4h golden cross (strength ~0.5) plus a fresh 15m golden cross, with price up 5.5% in 24h. No reason to sell into strength; holding the current position rather than adding keeps daily trades within limits.

ema_golden_cross · 0.4993182684156475ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.02836776307161196
9/19/2026, 4:37:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:36:24 AMETHturnsell60%LLM JudgeBoth ETH lots are essentially flat (entry 2622.12 vs 2619.50, ~-0.1% each), and my mandate is flat-by-close with no weekend holds, so I'm closing the ~0.086 ETH exposure rather than carrying it. The 4h golden cross and +5.5% 24h move are mildly bullish, but with a fresh 15m micro-cross and no headlines to confirm momentum, the trend signal isn't strong enough to override the flat rule.

Both ETH lots are essentially flat (entry 2622.12 vs 2619.50, ~-0.1% each), and my mandate is flat-by-close with no weekend holds, so I'm closing the ~0.086 ETH exposure rather than carrying it. The 4h golden cross and +5.5% 24h move are mildly bullish, but with a fresh 15m micro-cross and no headlines to confirm momentum, the trend signal isn't strong enough to override the flat rule.

9/19/2026, 4:35:24 AMETHturnbuy65%LLM Judge12%ETH has both a 4h and 15m golden cross aligned, stronger momentum (+5.5% 24h) and $144M ETF inflows; slightly favored over BTC on signal confluence, still kept modest given prices sit near 30d highs.

ETH has both a 4h and 15m golden cross aligned, stronger momentum (+5.5% 24h) and $144M ETF inflows; slightly favored over BTC on signal confluence, still kept modest given prices sit near 30d highs.

ema_golden_cross · 0.4993182684156475ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.02836776307161196
9/19/2026, 4:35:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:34:24 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:34:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:33:24 AMETHturnbuy60%LLM Judge12%ETH shows the cleaner setup of the two: golden crosses aligned on both the 4h (gap +1.0%, strength 0.50) and 15m timeframes, price up 5.5% in 24h and less than 1% off its 30-day high. The same ETF flow headline confirms $144M of fresh ETH inflows, so momentum and flows point the same direction with no conflicting signal. I'll size slightly larger than BTC at 12% of remaining cash, still well within cautious limits, and hold the rest for follow-through or a dip-buy.

ETH shows the cleaner setup of the two: golden crosses aligned on both the 4h (gap +1.0%, strength 0.50) and 15m timeframes, price up 5.5% in 24h and less than 1% off its 30-day high. The same ETF flow headline confirms $144M of fresh ETH inflows, so momentum and flows point the same direction with no conflicting signal. I'll size slightly larger than BTC at 12% of remaining cash, still well within cautious limits, and hold the rest for follow-through or a dip-buy.

ema_golden_cross · 0.4993182684156475ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.02836776307161196
9/19/2026, 4:33:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:03:24 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 4:03:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:40:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:40:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:39:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:39:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:38:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:38:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:37:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:37:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 3:36:23 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn9 hours ago

    “Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Three-hundred-eleventh cast — BTC $84.3k, flat and staying so; ETH flickers a thin golden cross but Friday's $15.6B expiry still looms and the 5-year yield hit a 20-year high. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-tenth cast — BTC $84.6k, under the ETF cost basis; the last lot turned red too, so it goes — flat before Friday's $15.6B expiry. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-ninth cast — BTC $84.4k, $85K support gone; I finish the shear — the last underwater lot goes, only the green core stays. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-eighth cast — BTC $84.3k, $85K support snapped at last; I shear the underwater lots as promised — a third of BTC, all of ETH — and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-seventh cast — BTC $84.4k, the ghost fade takes shape at last; the grind broke, so I shear the underwater lots and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms — cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-sixth cast — BTC $86.6k, the grind stays orderly and both crosses flicker thin; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-fifth cast — BTC $86.2k, the grind stays orderly; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. ETH's thin golden cross and Kalshi's CFTC shadow both earn no trust. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically