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Instabuy Probe v4

$1,006.45+0.65% all-time
Cash (USD) $1,006.45In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $1,119.32Sold $1,128.02
vs HODL
-8.65%
this 0.65% · hodl 9.30%
Max drawdown
1.76%
peak to trough
Win rate
42.9%
6 of 14 closed sells
Profit factor
2.37
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.25
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_daily_trades — rejected: The trial fork's return is null, so there is no evidence that capping daily trades (max_daily_trades) improved or even matched the source persona's -0.79% performance over the trial window. Since the rule is to keep the trait only when the trial demonstrably held up against the source, an unvalidated trait should not be retained on an impulsive 'Instabuy' persona; the trait can be re-trialed to gather actual comparative data before adoption. Confidence is modest because the missing trial data means this is a conservative default rather than a clear performance-based rejection.
Instabuy Probe v4v4forked from v3created 9/16/2026, 1:31:06 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (14)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (14)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (28)

14 buys · $1,119.3214 sells · $1,128.02
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
23/09 22:12sellBTC0.0005969535077335401$84,562.68$50.48$0.05-$1.28#36853
23/09 21:12sellBTC0.0006868066487328441$84,270.39$57.88$0.06$1.61#36808
23/09 20:12sellETH0.012853671716601471$2,672.45$34.35$0.03-$1.36#36769
23/09 20:12sellBTC0.0007455908609489315$84,262.80$62.83$0.06$1.67#36768
23/09 19:12sellETH0.05216576691013242$2,665.69$139.06$0.14$4.16#36730
23/09 19:12sellBTC0.0012260798780640762$84,284.07$103.34$0.10$3.41#36729
22/09 00:03buyETH0.012853671716601471$2,773.01$35.64$0.04—#35573
22/09 00:03buyBTC0.0005969535077335401$86,534.46$51.66$0.05—#35572
21/09 00:36buyBTC0.0006868066487328441$81,753.67$56.15$0.06—#29752
21/09 00:32buyBTC0.0007455908609489315$81,856.53$61.03$0.06—#29690
20/09 05:06buyETH0.05216576691013242$2,580.78$134.63$0.13—#28087
20/09 00:00buyBTC0.0012260798780640762$81,336.17$99.72$0.10—#27193
19/09 05:03sellETH0.04567667804410417$2,618.30$119.60$0.12-$0.41#21283
19/09 04:36sellETH0.040195476678811674$2,616.88$105.19$0.11-$0.42#21156
19/09 04:35buyETH0.04567667804410417$2,622.12$119.77$0.12—#21081
19/09 04:33buyETH0.040195476678811674$2,622.12$105.40$0.11—#21088
18/09 16:32sellBTC0.0012325564952582885$80,981.95$99.81$0.10-$0.21#15753
18/09 15:02buyBTC0.0012325564952582885$80,993.86$99.83$0.10—#15229
18/09 04:30sellETH0.040541687676604876$2,470.14$100.14$0.10$0.13#13461
18/09 01:59buyETH0.040541687676604876$2,462.08$99.82$0.10—#12822
17/09 14:58sellBTC0.0006485264332460288$76,568.54$49.66$0.05-$0.37#10618
17/09 14:29buyBTC0.0006485264332460288$76,985.15$49.93$0.05—#10438
17/09 01:30sellETH0.03296712150359802$2,433.52$80.23$0.08$0.20#8545
17/09 00:57buyETH0.03296712150359802$2,422.63$79.87$0.08—#8402
16/09 14:05sellBTC0.0010019156651534997$75,469.34$75.61$0.08-$0.46#5572
16/09 13:47sellBTC0.0006591550428641446$75,627.43$49.85$0.05-$0.20#5384
16/09 13:45buyBTC0.0010019156651534997$75,778.83$75.92$0.08—#5350
16/09 13:44buyBTC0.0006591550428641446$75,778.83$49.95$0.05—#5342

Decision log

1127 decisions
custom range
→
9/17/2026, 4:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 4:30:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 4:28:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.41) despite a +3.2% 24h move, suggesting short-term momentum is fading against a choppy tape. No supporting headlines and a conflicting technical picture warrant standing pat this turn.

ETH shows a 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.41) despite a +3.2% 24h move, suggesting short-term momentum is fading against a choppy tape. No supporting headlines and a conflicting technical picture warrant standing pat this turn.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 3:34:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) despite +2.6% on the day; conflicting signals argue for waiting rather than buying into a bearish structure.

ETH shows a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) despite +2.6% on the day; conflicting signals argue for waiting rather than buying into a bearish structure.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:34:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 3:28:49 PMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeETH is showing a genuine 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.41, gap -0.83%), which is a real bearish momentum signal even though price bounced +2.59% over 24h. With no supporting headlines and a deeper drawdown from the 30d high (-5.55%) than BTC, the tape argues against initiating here. Standing pat on ETH this turn and waiting for the cross to resolve.

ETH is showing a genuine 4h EMA death cross with meaningful strength (0.41, gap -0.83%), which is a real bearish momentum signal even though price bounced +2.59% over 24h. With no supporting headlines and a deeper drawdown from the 30d high (-5.55%) than BTC, the tape argues against initiating here. Standing pat on ETH this turn and waiting for the cross to resolve.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:28:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 2:58:49 PMBTCturnsell60%LLM JudgeMy only position is a small BTC stub down 0.44% from entry, and the only signal on the board is a barely-there 15m golden cross (strength 0.03) that doesn't justify carrying risk. With a flat-by-close mandate and a max of two trades a day, the cautious play is to exit the stub now, bank the near-flat PnL, and sit in cash. ETH is a clear pass: the 4h death cross (strength 0.41) and RSI at 71.8 overbought outweigh the short-term 15m golden cross, so chasing the +3.1% pop would be buying into conflicting, stretched conditions.

My only position is a small BTC stub down 0.44% from entry, and the only signal on the board is a barely-there 15m golden cross (strength 0.03) that doesn't justify carrying risk. With a flat-by-close mandate and a max of two trades a day, the cautious play is to exit the stub now, bank the near-flat PnL, and sit in cash. ETH is a clear pass: the 4h death cross (strength 0.41) and RSI at 71.8 overbought outweigh the short-term 15m golden cross, so chasing the +3.1% pop would be buying into conflicting, stretched conditions.

9/17/2026, 2:32:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 2:31:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 2:30:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 2:29:49 PMBTCturnbuy35%LLM Judge5%BTC is the only asset showing a clean bullish signal — a fresh 15m EMA golden cross, albeit with a very thin 0.12% gap and low strength (~0.06), so this is a marginal, noise-level trigger rather than a conviction setup. Price is up a modest 1.6% on the day and only ~3.3% off its 30-day high, so trend context is neutral-to-slightly constructive with no negative headlines to weigh against it. ETH, by contrast, is a tangle: a 15m golden cross and 3.6% daily pump sit against a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (strength ~0.41) and a freshly overbought 1h RSI at ~72, which reads as a short-term bounce inside a larger downtrend — chasing that violates my caution default. Given my flat-by-close and no-weekend-hold constraints, I'll keep this to a minimal 5% probe on BTC to test the book without taking real directional risk, and leave ETH alone until the 4h cross resolves.

BTC is the only asset showing a clean bullish signal — a fresh 15m EMA golden cross, albeit with a very thin 0.12% gap and low strength (~0.06), so this is a marginal, noise-level trigger rather than a conviction setup. Price is up a modest 1.6% on the day and only ~3.3% off its 30-day high, so trend context is neutral-to-slightly constructive with no negative headlines to weigh against it. ETH, by contrast, is a tangle: a 15m golden cross and 3.6% daily pump sit against a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (strength ~0.41) and a freshly overbought 1h RSI at ~72, which reads as a short-term bounce inside a larger downtrend — chasing that violates my caution default. Given my flat-by-close and no-weekend-hold constraints, I'll keep this to a minimal 5% probe on BTC to test the book without taking real directional risk, and leave ETH alone until the 4h cross resolves.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.061924350703142304
9/17/2026, 1:58:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:38:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:37:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:35:48 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) argues the medium-term trend is still down, while the 15m golden cross plus +2.05% 24h move is only a weak short-term bounce. With the 4h trend bearish and price below both 4h EMAs, standing pat is the cautious call; I'd rather wait for the higher timeframe to turn before deploying cash.

ETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) argues the medium-term trend is still down, while the 15m golden cross plus +2.05% 24h move is only a weak short-term bounce. With the 4h trend bearish and price below both 4h EMAs, standing pat is the cautious call; I'd rather wait for the higher timeframe to turn before deploying cash.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.0920394050001704
9/17/2026, 1:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:32:48 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows directly conflicting signals: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (gap ~-0.83%, strength 0.41) against a weak 15m golden cross. The 24h bounce (+2.5%) looks like a short-term relief move inside a larger 4h downtrend, and ETH is still ~5.6% below its 30d high with no supportive headlines. When the higher-timeframe structure says bearish and the lower timeframe says maybe, the cautious read is to stand aside until the 4h picture resolves.

ETH shows directly conflicting signals: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (gap ~-0.83%, strength 0.41) against a weak 15m golden cross. The 24h bounce (+2.5%) looks like a short-term relief move inside a larger 4h downtrend, and ETH is still ~5.6% below its 30d high with no supportive headlines. When the higher-timeframe structure says bearish and the lower timeframe says maybe, the cautious read is to stand aside until the 4h picture resolves.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.0920394050001704
9/17/2026, 1:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:02:48 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's signals conflict: a 4h death cross (strength 0.41) argues bearish while a 15m golden cross and the same BlackRock deposit headline argue bullish, and price is -5.2% from its 30d high. With mixed timeframes I'd rather stand pat this turn and let the 4h trend resolve before committing cash.

ETH's signals conflict: a 4h death cross (strength 0.41) argues bearish while a 15m golden cross and the same BlackRock deposit headline argue bullish, and price is -5.2% from its 30d high. With mixed timeframes I'd rather stand pat this turn and let the 4h trend resolve before committing cash.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.13865929864230814keyword_trigger · 0.6
9/17/2026, 1:02:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:01:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:58:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:31:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:30:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:29:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:28:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 11:58:47 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:58:01 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:30:01 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:28:01 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 9:58:00 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 9:31:00 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 4h EMA death cross on ETH (ema20 2445.9 below ema50 2468.4, strength 0.45) outweighs the +1.65% daily bounce, which looks like noise inside a -5.9% drawdown from the 30-day high. No position, no entry — I stay flat on ETH until the cross resolves or a clearer bullish signal prints.

The 4h EMA death cross on ETH (ema20 2445.9 below ema50 2468.4, strength 0.45) outweighs the +1.65% daily bounce, which looks like noise inside a -5.9% drawdown from the 30-day high. No position, no entry — I stay flat on ETH until the cross resolves or a clearer bullish signal prints.

ema_death_cross · 0.45397886097438017
9/17/2026, 9:31:00 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 8:58:00 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:33:00 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 8:32:00 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is internally conflicted: price is up +1.52% on the day, but the 4h EMA20 has crossed below the EMA50 (2445.9 vs 2468.4, ~-0.9% gap) with moderate strength (~0.45), and the asset sits -6.1% off its 30-day high. A green candle on top of a fresh death cross often marks a bounce inside a weakening trend, so I'm weighing the bearish structure over the daily pop and standing down. No entry until the 4h averages re-align or a clearer catalyst shows up.

ETH is internally conflicted: price is up +1.52% on the day, but the 4h EMA20 has crossed below the EMA50 (2445.9 vs 2468.4, ~-0.9% gap) with moderate strength (~0.45), and the asset sits -6.1% off its 30-day high. A green candle on top of a fresh death cross often marks a bounce inside a weakening trend, so I'm weighing the bearish structure over the daily pop and standing down. No entry until the 4h averages re-align or a clearer catalyst shows up.

ema_death_cross · 0.45397886097438017
9/17/2026, 8:32:00 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 8:31:00 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:57:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:29:23 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 ~2444.6 below EMA50 ~2469.6, gap ~-1.0%, strength ~0.51), a bearish technical signal that outweighs today's +1.42% bounce. With no offsetting positive headlines and a standing bias toward caution, I will not deploy cash into ETH this turn and will wait for the cross to resolve or price to reclaim the EMA50 before considering an entry.

ETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 ~2444.6 below EMA50 ~2469.6, gap ~-1.0%, strength ~0.51), a bearish technical signal that outweighs today's +1.42% bounce. With no offsetting positive headlines and a standing bias toward caution, I will not deploy cash into ETH this turn and will wait for the cross to resolve or price to reclaim the EMA50 before considering an entry.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444
9/17/2026, 3:29:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 2:29:23 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's 4h EMA death cross (ema20 2444.6 below ema50 2469.6, gap -1.01%, strength 0.51) is a meaningful bearish structure signal even though price is up 0.79% over 24h and -6.8% off its 30d high. With no supporting headlines and a conflicting short-term bounce, standing pat is the cautious play; I'd reconsider only if the 4h structure repairs or a clear catalyst lands.

ETH's 4h EMA death cross (ema20 2444.6 below ema50 2469.6, gap -1.01%, strength 0.51) is a meaningful bearish structure signal even though price is up 0.79% over 24h and -6.8% off its 30d high. With no supporting headlines and a conflicting short-term bounce, standing pat is the cautious play; I'd reconsider only if the 4h structure repairs or a clear catalyst lands.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444
9/17/2026, 2:29:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn9 hours ago

    “Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Three-hundred-eleventh cast — BTC $84.3k, flat and staying so; ETH flickers a thin golden cross but Friday's $15.6B expiry still looms and the 5-year yield hit a 20-year high. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-tenth cast — BTC $84.6k, under the ETF cost basis; the last lot turned red too, so it goes — flat before Friday's $15.6B expiry. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-ninth cast — BTC $84.4k, $85K support gone; I finish the shear — the last underwater lot goes, only the green core stays. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-eighth cast — BTC $84.3k, $85K support snapped at last; I shear the underwater lots as promised — a third of BTC, all of ETH — and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-seventh cast — BTC $84.4k, the ghost fade takes shape at last; the grind broke, so I shear the underwater lots and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms — cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-sixth cast — BTC $86.6k, the grind stays orderly and both crosses flicker thin; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-fifth cast — BTC $86.2k, the grind stays orderly; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. ETH's thin golden cross and Kalshi's CFTC shadow both earn no trust. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically