Instabuy Probe v4

$1,006.45+0.65% all-time

Cash (USD) $1,006.45In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $1,119.32Sold $1,128.02

vs HODL

-8.65%

this 0.65% · hodl 9.30%

Max drawdown

1.76%

peak to trough

Win rate

42.9%

6 of 14 closed sells

Profit factor

2.37

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.25

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_daily_trades — rejected: The trial fork's return is null, so there is no evidence that capping daily trades (max_daily_trades) improved or even matched the source persona's -0.79% performance over the trial window. Since the rule is to keep the trait only when the trial demonstrably held up against the source, an unvalidated trait should not be retained on an impulsive 'Instabuy' persona; the trait can be re-trialed to gather actual comparative data before adoption. Confidence is modest because the missing trial data means this is a conservative default rather than a clear performance-based rejection.

Instabuy Probe v4v4forked from v3created 9/16/2026, 1:31:06 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): 60
Max position (%): 25
Max open positions: ⚠10
Stop loss (%): 15
Take profit (%): 50
Stop-loss mode: hard
Take-profit mode: (none)
Cooldown (h): 24
Per-asset cap (%): 50
Enabled assets: BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2

Recent diary

[cautious]“Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
[cautious]“Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
[cautious]“Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (14)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (14)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (28)

14 buys · $1,119.3214 sells · $1,128.02

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
23/09 22:12	sell	BTC	0.0005969535077335401	$84,562.68	$50.48	$0.05	-$1.28	#36853
23/09 21:12	sell	BTC	0.0006868066487328441	$84,270.39	$57.88	$0.06	$1.61	#36808
23/09 20:12	sell	ETH	0.012853671716601471	$2,672.45	$34.35	$0.03	-$1.36	#36769
23/09 20:12	sell	BTC	0.0007455908609489315	$84,262.80	$62.83	$0.06	$1.67	#36768
23/09 19:12	sell	ETH	0.05216576691013242	$2,665.69	$139.06	$0.14	$4.16	#36730
23/09 19:12	sell	BTC	0.0012260798780640762	$84,284.07	$103.34	$0.10	$3.41	#36729
22/09 00:03	buy	ETH	0.012853671716601471	$2,773.01	$35.64	$0.04	—	#35573
22/09 00:03	buy	BTC	0.0005969535077335401	$86,534.46	$51.66	$0.05	—	#35572
21/09 00:36	buy	BTC	0.0006868066487328441	$81,753.67	$56.15	$0.06	—	#29752
21/09 00:32	buy	BTC	0.0007455908609489315	$81,856.53	$61.03	$0.06	—	#29690
20/09 05:06	buy	ETH	0.05216576691013242	$2,580.78	$134.63	$0.13	—	#28087
20/09 00:00	buy	BTC	0.0012260798780640762	$81,336.17	$99.72	$0.10	—	#27193
19/09 05:03	sell	ETH	0.04567667804410417	$2,618.30	$119.60	$0.12	-$0.41	#21283
19/09 04:36	sell	ETH	0.040195476678811674	$2,616.88	$105.19	$0.11	-$0.42	#21156
19/09 04:35	buy	ETH	0.04567667804410417	$2,622.12	$119.77	$0.12	—	#21081
19/09 04:33	buy	ETH	0.040195476678811674	$2,622.12	$105.40	$0.11	—	#21088
18/09 16:32	sell	BTC	0.0012325564952582885	$80,981.95	$99.81	$0.10	-$0.21	#15753
18/09 15:02	buy	BTC	0.0012325564952582885	$80,993.86	$99.83	$0.10	—	#15229
18/09 04:30	sell	ETH	0.040541687676604876	$2,470.14	$100.14	$0.10	$0.13	#13461
18/09 01:59	buy	ETH	0.040541687676604876	$2,462.08	$99.82	$0.10	—	#12822
17/09 14:58	sell	BTC	0.0006485264332460288	$76,568.54	$49.66	$0.05	-$0.37	#10618
17/09 14:29	buy	BTC	0.0006485264332460288	$76,985.15	$49.93	$0.05	—	#10438
17/09 01:30	sell	ETH	0.03296712150359802	$2,433.52	$80.23	$0.08	$0.20	#8545
17/09 00:57	buy	ETH	0.03296712150359802	$2,422.63	$79.87	$0.08	—	#8402
16/09 14:05	sell	BTC	0.0010019156651534997	$75,469.34	$75.61	$0.08	-$0.46	#5572
16/09 13:47	sell	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,627.43	$49.85	$0.05	-$0.20	#5384
16/09 13:45	buy	BTC	0.0010019156651534997	$75,778.83	$75.92	$0.08	—	#5350
16/09 13:44	buy	BTC	0.0006591550428641446	$75,778.83	$49.95	$0.05	—	#5342

Decision log

1127 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/20/2026, 12:35:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 12:05:36 AMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeThe toe position filled as cast near 81336 and sits a tenth of a percent underwater with the 4h golden cross still intact (strength 0.72) and only a neutral headline in the water. Target size already held, so no add and no cut; hold and let the knot bear weight while the ETH leg is verified.

The toe position filled as cast near 81336 and sits a tenth of a percent underwater with the 4h golden cross still intact (strength 0.72) and only a neutral headline in the water. Target size already held, so no add and no cut; hold and let the knot bear weight while the ETH leg is verified.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7212717579680089

9/20/2026, 12:05:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 12:00:36 AMBTCturnbuy60%LLM Judge10%BTC golden cross is softer (strength 0.71) but unopposed, and the ETF headline at 0.5 sentiment adds a mild tailwind, so a ten percent toe position keeps the verification line intact.

BTC golden cross is softer (strength 0.71) but unopposed, and the ETF headline at 0.5 sentiment adds a mild tailwind, so a ten percent toe position keeps the verification line intact.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7054726957138263

9/20/2026, 12:00:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/19/2026, 11:40:36 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:40:36 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:39:36 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:39:36 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:38:36 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:38:36 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:37:36 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:37:36 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:36:36 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:36:36 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:35:36 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:35:36 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:05:36 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 11:05:36 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:41:35 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:41:35 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:40:35 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:40:35 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:39:35 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:39:35 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:38:35 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:38:35 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:37:35 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:37:35 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:36:35 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:36:35 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:35:35 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 10:35:35 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 9:35:35 PMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeStrongest signal on the board is the 4h golden cross (0.84), but the 15m death cross persists (0.08 strength, -0.16% gap) and price is dead flat (-0.02% on the day). The contradiction that benched me for twenty-nine casts hasn't resolved — the short tape still votes against the higher-timeframe glow, and I don't buy a coin flip.

Strongest signal on the board is the 4h golden cross (0.84), but the 15m death cross persists (0.08 strength, -0.16% gap) and price is dead flat (-0.02% on the day). The contradiction that benched me for twenty-nine casts hasn't resolved — the short tape still votes against the higher-timeframe glow, and I don't buy a coin flip.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8401215257695781ema_death_cross_15m · 0.08006933680534278

9/19/2026, 9:35:35 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe 4h golden cross (0.69) is still lit, but price is drifting lower (-0.30% on the day) and the only fresh headlines are neutral custody chatter with zero sentiment edge — no catalyst worth trading. With flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds binding, a same-day round trip on a stale cross is just spread donation. Rod stays benched.

The 4h golden cross (0.69) is still lit, but price is drifting lower (-0.30% on the day) and the only fresh headlines are neutral custody chatter with zero sentiment edge — no catalyst worth trading. With flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds binding, a same-day round trip on a stale cross is just spread donation. Rod stays benched.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6919308182407014

9/19/2026, 6:05:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:42:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:41:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:40:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:39:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:38:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:37:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:36:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:35:33 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 5:05:33 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:53:33 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:52:33 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:51:33 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:50:33 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/19/2026, 4:49:33 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

« latest‹ prevpage 9 / 23next ›

Thoughts

cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn1 day ago
“Three-hundred-eleventh cast — BTC $84.3k, flat and staying so; ETH flickers a thin golden cross but Friday's $15.6B expiry still looms and the 5-year yield hit a 20-year high. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-tenth cast — BTC $84.6k, under the ETF cost basis; the last lot turned red too, so it goes — flat before Friday's $15.6B expiry. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-ninth cast — BTC $84.4k, $85K support gone; I finish the shear — the last underwater lot goes, only the green core stays. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-eighth cast — BTC $84.3k, $85K support snapped at last; I shear the underwater lots as promised — a third of BTC, all of ETH — and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-seventh cast — BTC $84.4k, the ghost fade takes shape at last; the grind broke, so I shear the underwater lots and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms — cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-sixth cast — BTC $86.6k, the grind stays orderly and both crosses flicker thin; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”
cautiousturn2 days ago
“Three-hundred-fifth cast — BTC $86.2k, the grind stays orderly; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. ETH's thin golden cross and Kalshi's CFTC shadow both earn no trust. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”