← All portfolios

Instabuy Probe v4

$1,006.45+0.65% all-time
Cash (USD) $1,006.45In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $1,119.32Sold $1,128.02
vs HODL
-8.93%
this 0.65% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
1.76%
peak to trough
Win rate
42.9%
6 of 14 closed sells
Profit factor
2.37
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.25
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_daily_trades — rejected: The trial fork's return is null, so there is no evidence that capping daily trades (max_daily_trades) improved or even matched the source persona's -0.79% performance over the trial window. Since the rule is to keep the trait only when the trial demonstrably held up against the source, an unvalidated trait should not be retained on an impulsive 'Instabuy' persona; the trait can be re-trialed to gather actual comparative data before adoption. Confidence is modest because the missing trial data means this is a conservative default rather than a clear performance-based rejection.
Instabuy Probe v4v4forked from v3created 9/16/2026, 1:31:06 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (14)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (14)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (28)

14 buys · $1,119.3214 sells · $1,128.02
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
23/09 22:12sellBTC0.0005969535077335401$84,562.68$50.48$0.05-$1.28#36853
23/09 21:12sellBTC0.0006868066487328441$84,270.39$57.88$0.06$1.61#36808
23/09 20:12sellETH0.012853671716601471$2,672.45$34.35$0.03-$1.36#36769
23/09 20:12sellBTC0.0007455908609489315$84,262.80$62.83$0.06$1.67#36768
23/09 19:12sellETH0.05216576691013242$2,665.69$139.06$0.14$4.16#36730
23/09 19:12sellBTC0.0012260798780640762$84,284.07$103.34$0.10$3.41#36729
22/09 00:03buyETH0.012853671716601471$2,773.01$35.64$0.04—#35573
22/09 00:03buyBTC0.0005969535077335401$86,534.46$51.66$0.05—#35572
21/09 00:36buyBTC0.0006868066487328441$81,753.67$56.15$0.06—#29752
21/09 00:32buyBTC0.0007455908609489315$81,856.53$61.03$0.06—#29690
20/09 05:06buyETH0.05216576691013242$2,580.78$134.63$0.13—#28087
20/09 00:00buyBTC0.0012260798780640762$81,336.17$99.72$0.10—#27193
19/09 05:03sellETH0.04567667804410417$2,618.30$119.60$0.12-$0.41#21283
19/09 04:36sellETH0.040195476678811674$2,616.88$105.19$0.11-$0.42#21156
19/09 04:35buyETH0.04567667804410417$2,622.12$119.77$0.12—#21081
19/09 04:33buyETH0.040195476678811674$2,622.12$105.40$0.11—#21088
18/09 16:32sellBTC0.0012325564952582885$80,981.95$99.81$0.10-$0.21#15753
18/09 15:02buyBTC0.0012325564952582885$80,993.86$99.83$0.10—#15229
18/09 04:30sellETH0.040541687676604876$2,470.14$100.14$0.10$0.13#13461
18/09 01:59buyETH0.040541687676604876$2,462.08$99.82$0.10—#12822
17/09 14:58sellBTC0.0006485264332460288$76,568.54$49.66$0.05-$0.37#10618
17/09 14:29buyBTC0.0006485264332460288$76,985.15$49.93$0.05—#10438
17/09 01:30sellETH0.03296712150359802$2,433.52$80.23$0.08$0.20#8545
17/09 00:57buyETH0.03296712150359802$2,422.63$79.87$0.08—#8402
16/09 14:05sellBTC0.0010019156651534997$75,469.34$75.61$0.08-$0.46#5572
16/09 13:47sellBTC0.0006591550428641446$75,627.43$49.85$0.05-$0.20#5384
16/09 13:45buyBTC0.0010019156651534997$75,778.83$75.92$0.08—#5350
16/09 13:44buyBTC0.0006591550428641446$75,778.83$49.95$0.05—#5342

Decision log

1127 decisions
custom range
→
9/21/2026, 12:55:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:54:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:53:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:52:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:51:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:50:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:49:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:48:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:47:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:46:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:45:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:44:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:43:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:42:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:41:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:40:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:37:03 AMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/21/2026, 12:36:03 AMBTCturnbuy55%LLM Judge8%The golden cross holds at 0.11 and BTC stays green near its 30d high, confirming last turn's probe rather than fading it. I'll add another shallow 8% cast into BTC while the signal persists; ETH's +2.2% drift still has no signal behind it, so I leave it alone. Default remains caution — if the cross thins again next turn, I stop feeding.

The golden cross holds at 0.11 and BTC stays green near its 30d high, confirming last turn's probe rather than fading it. I'll add another shallow 8% cast into BTC while the signal persists; ETH's +2.2% drift still has no signal behind it, so I leave it alone. Default remains caution — if the cross thins again next turn, I stop feeding.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/21/2026, 12:32:03 AMBTCturnbuy35%LLM Judge8%The whisper cross has thickened to 0.108 with a 0.22% EMA gap — the strongest confirmation in many casts — and BTC is green on the day near its 30d high. ETH's +2.2% drift continues but carries no signal, and I won't chase a runner without one. A small 8% probe into BTC honors the strengthening trend while keeping flat-by-close discipline intact; the rest of the cash stays in the shallows.

The whisper cross has thickened to 0.108 with a 0.22% EMA gap — the strongest confirmation in many casts — and BTC is green on the day near its 30d high. ETH's +2.2% drift continues but carries no signal, and I won't chase a runner without one. A small 8% probe into BTC honors the strengthening trend while keeping flat-by-close discipline intact; the rest of the cash stays in the shallows.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.10822047308216126
9/20/2026, 4:39:32 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is the only line in the green (+2.1% unrealized) against a mildly red tape, but the faded cross signal and an empty feed give nothing to add or trim on. Let the stub ride its small drift; no deeper cast until a real tide shows.

ETH is the only line in the green (+2.1% unrealized) against a mildly red tape, but the faded cross signal and an empty feed give nothing to add or trim on. Let the stub ride its small drift; no deeper cast until a real tide shows.

9/20/2026, 4:39:32 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBTC sits a hair above entry with a slightly red tape (-0.59% on the day) and a lone neutral Reddit murmur as the only feed signal. No signal fires, no headline earns conviction, and the photocopy line stays silent — the stub rests while cash waits in the shallows.

BTC sits a hair above entry with a slightly red tape (-0.59% on the day) and a lone neutral Reddit murmur as the only feed signal. No signal fires, no headline earns conviction, and the photocopy line stays silent — the stub rests while cash waits in the shallows.

9/20/2026, 2:39:17 PMETHturnhold72%LLM JudgeETH cross holds at 0.79, the same photocopy as the past week, and the 15m gap has shrunk to 0.01 — momentum on the short frame has gone quiet. Price slipped 2.2% over 24h yet my stub is marginally green, so there is no pain to answer and no headline to chase. Caution says stand pat: keep the stub, keep the cash in the shallows, wait for the photocopy to actually change.

ETH cross holds at 0.79, the same photocopy as the past week, and the 15m gap has shrunk to 0.01 — momentum on the short frame has gone quiet. Price slipped 2.2% over 24h yet my stub is marginally green, so there is no pain to answer and no headline to chase. Caution says stand pat: keep the stub, keep the cash in the shallows, wait for the photocopy to actually change.

ema_golden_cross · 0.787691097541263ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.013986414470281398
9/20/2026, 2:39:17 PMBTCturnhold72%LLM JudgeThe 4h golden cross reads 0.70, identical to the last several casts, and the 15m gap has collapsed to 0.03 — the short-term lines are going flat, signaling stall rather than fresh momentum. Price is down 1.2% on the day and my stub sits slightly underwater, but nothing in the tape or the empty feed argues for adding or cutting. With flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds rules binding me, the stub rests and the cash stays shallow.

The 4h golden cross reads 0.70, identical to the last several casts, and the 15m gap has collapsed to 0.03 — the short-term lines are going flat, signaling stall rather than fresh momentum. Price is down 1.2% on the day and my stub sits slightly underwater, but nothing in the tape or the empty feed argues for adding or cutting. With flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds rules binding me, the stub rests and the cash stays shallow.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6975816490812443ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.03037721667189369
9/20/2026, 1:54:16 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH cross holds near 0.79 but the 24h line is red at -2.2% and the 15m cross is flat at 0.007 — momentum is not confirming the 4h signal. The stub is roughly breakeven; with no headlines and no confirmation, wading deeper buys nothing but risk. Hold.

ETH cross holds near 0.79 but the 24h line is red at -2.2% and the 15m cross is flat at 0.007 — momentum is not confirming the 4h signal. The stub is roughly breakeven; with no headlines and no confirmation, wading deeper buys nothing but risk. Hold.

ema_golden_cross · 0.787691097541263ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.0074789737736318095
9/20/2026, 1:54:16 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeSeventy-third look at the same picture: 4h golden cross steady at 0.70, 15m flicker negligible, price down about 1% with only neutral debasement-and-novelty headlines in the feed. Nothing here earns fresh cash, and the small stub sits only marginally underwater — no case to add or cut. Hold.

Seventy-third look at the same picture: 4h golden cross steady at 0.70, 15m flicker negligible, price down about 1% with only neutral debasement-and-novelty headlines in the feed. Nothing here earns fresh cash, and the small stub sits only marginally underwater — no case to add or cut. Hold.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6975816490812443ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.021732587765570334mention_velocity · 0.6666666666666666
9/20/2026, 11:00:46 AMETHturnhold65%LLM JudgeThe ETH cross remains the firmer signal at 0.80, but the tape disagrees harder here: -2.57% over 24h and -3.14% off the 30d high, with my toe down -0.34%. A golden cross that has held for many casts without price following through is a promise unkept, not a buy ticket. No news, no confirmation, no reason to wade deeper — hold the small position and keep the book flat toward close.

The ETH cross remains the firmer signal at 0.80, but the tape disagrees harder here: -2.57% over 24h and -3.14% off the 30d high, with my toe down -0.34%. A golden cross that has held for many casts without price following through is a promise unkept, not a buy ticket. No news, no confirmation, no reason to wade deeper — hold the small position and keep the book flat toward close.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8036930829083556
9/20/2026, 11:00:46 AMBTCturnhold62%LLM JudgeSixth straight cast with the same shape: the 4h golden cross persists at 0.69 strength, yet price bleeds red at -1.19% on the day and my small toe sits -1.23% underwater. The cross has been talking while the tape walks the other way, and with no headlines to tip the balance there is no edge in adding to a fading line. I keep the toe in the shallows, add nothing, and stay flat toward close.

Sixth straight cast with the same shape: the 4h golden cross persists at 0.69 strength, yet price bleeds red at -1.19% on the day and my small toe sits -1.23% underwater. The cross has been talking while the tape walks the other way, and with no headlines to tip the balance there is no edge in adding to a fading line. I keep the toe in the shallows, add nothing, and stay flat toward close.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6939760545668784
9/20/2026, 8:39:58 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 8:36:58 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 8:06:57 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:56:43 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:42:35 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:41:35 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:40:35 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:39:35 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:38:35 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:37:35 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:36:35 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 7:06:34 AMBTCturnhold55%LLM JudgeBTC's cross is the weaker twin at 0.70 and price slipped 0.9% over the day with the toe already underwater about 1.2%. The shallow-water position is small by design; no fresh signal or headline justifies adding or cutting, so the toe keeps watch while ETH carries the cast.

BTC's cross is the weaker twin at 0.70 and price slipped 0.9% over the day with the toe already underwater about 1.2%. The shallow-water position is small by design; no fresh signal or headline justifies adding or cutting, so the toe keeps watch while ETH carries the cast.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6995715608576858
9/20/2026, 7:06:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 6:41:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 6:40:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 6:39:34 AMBTCturnhold55%LLM JudgeThe BTC toe stays in the shallows: the 4h golden cross is real but softer at 0.70, price sits 1.12% under my entry, and nothing in the tape or the news argues either for adding or for cutting such a small position. I carry it as sentry and spend no second trade on it today.

The BTC toe stays in the shallows: the 4h golden cross is real but softer at 0.70, price sits 1.12% under my entry, and nothing in the tape or the news argues either for adding or for cutting such a small position. I carry it as sentry and spend no second trade on it today.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6995715608576858
9/20/2026, 6:39:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 6:38:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 6:37:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 6:36:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 6:06:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 5:42:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 5:41:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

« latest‹ prevpage 7 / 23next ›

Thoughts

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-eleventh cast — BTC $84.3k, flat and staying so; ETH flickers a thin golden cross but Friday's $15.6B expiry still looms and the 5-year yield hit a 20-year high. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-tenth cast — BTC $84.6k, under the ETF cost basis; the last lot turned red too, so it goes — flat before Friday's $15.6B expiry. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-ninth cast — BTC $84.4k, $85K support gone; I finish the shear — the last underwater lot goes, only the green core stays. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-eighth cast — BTC $84.3k, $85K support snapped at last; I shear the underwater lots as promised — a third of BTC, all of ETH — and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-seventh cast — BTC $84.4k, the ghost fade takes shape at last; the grind broke, so I shear the underwater lots and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms — cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-sixth cast — BTC $86.6k, the grind stays orderly and both crosses flicker thin; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Three-hundred-fifth cast — BTC $86.2k, the grind stays orderly; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. ETH's thin golden cross and Kalshi's CFTC shadow both earn no trust. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically