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Instabuy Probe v4

$1,006.45+0.65% all-time
Cash (USD) $1,006.45In positions $0.00Seed untouched $1,000.00 of $1,000.00Deployed +0.00%Bought $1,119.32Sold $1,128.02
vs HODL
-8.93%
this 0.65% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
1.76%
peak to trough
Win rate
42.9%
6 of 14 closed sells
Profit factor
2.37
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.25
Σ across all trades

Equity

7d30d90dall
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_daily_trades — rejected: The trial fork's return is null, so there is no evidence that capping daily trades (max_daily_trades) improved or even matched the source persona's -0.79% performance over the trial window. Since the rule is to keep the trait only when the trial demonstrably held up against the source, an unvalidated trait should not be retained on an impulsive 'Instabuy' persona; the trait can be re-trialed to gather actual comparative data before adoption. Confidence is modest because the missing trial data means this is a conservative default rather than a clear performance-based rejection.
Instabuy Probe v4v4forked from v3created 9/16/2026, 1:31:06 AMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
60
Max position (%)
25
Max open positions
⚠10
Stop loss (%)
15
Take profit (%)
50
Stop-loss mode
hard
Take-profit mode
(none)
Cooldown (h)
24
Per-asset cap (%)
50
Enabled assets
BTC, ETH

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”
  • [cautious]“Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (14)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (14)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (0)

No open positions.

Trade log (28)

14 buys · $1,119.3214 sells · $1,128.02
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
23/09 22:12sellBTC0.0005969535077335401$84,562.68$50.48$0.05-$1.28#36853
23/09 21:12sellBTC0.0006868066487328441$84,270.39$57.88$0.06$1.61#36808
23/09 20:12sellETH0.012853671716601471$2,672.45$34.35$0.03-$1.36#36769
23/09 20:12sellBTC0.0007455908609489315$84,262.80$62.83$0.06$1.67#36768
23/09 19:12sellETH0.05216576691013242$2,665.69$139.06$0.14$4.16#36730
23/09 19:12sellBTC0.0012260798780640762$84,284.07$103.34$0.10$3.41#36729
22/09 00:03buyETH0.012853671716601471$2,773.01$35.64$0.04—#35573
22/09 00:03buyBTC0.0005969535077335401$86,534.46$51.66$0.05—#35572
21/09 00:36buyBTC0.0006868066487328441$81,753.67$56.15$0.06—#29752
21/09 00:32buyBTC0.0007455908609489315$81,856.53$61.03$0.06—#29690
20/09 05:06buyETH0.05216576691013242$2,580.78$134.63$0.13—#28087
20/09 00:00buyBTC0.0012260798780640762$81,336.17$99.72$0.10—#27193
19/09 05:03sellETH0.04567667804410417$2,618.30$119.60$0.12-$0.41#21283
19/09 04:36sellETH0.040195476678811674$2,616.88$105.19$0.11-$0.42#21156
19/09 04:35buyETH0.04567667804410417$2,622.12$119.77$0.12—#21081
19/09 04:33buyETH0.040195476678811674$2,622.12$105.40$0.11—#21088
18/09 16:32sellBTC0.0012325564952582885$80,981.95$99.81$0.10-$0.21#15753
18/09 15:02buyBTC0.0012325564952582885$80,993.86$99.83$0.10—#15229
18/09 04:30sellETH0.040541687676604876$2,470.14$100.14$0.10$0.13#13461
18/09 01:59buyETH0.040541687676604876$2,462.08$99.82$0.10—#12822
17/09 14:58sellBTC0.0006485264332460288$76,568.54$49.66$0.05-$0.37#10618
17/09 14:29buyBTC0.0006485264332460288$76,985.15$49.93$0.05—#10438
17/09 01:30sellETH0.03296712150359802$2,433.52$80.23$0.08$0.20#8545
17/09 00:57buyETH0.03296712150359802$2,422.63$79.87$0.08—#8402
16/09 14:05sellBTC0.0010019156651534997$75,469.34$75.61$0.08-$0.46#5572
16/09 13:47sellBTC0.0006591550428641446$75,627.43$49.85$0.05-$0.20#5384
16/09 13:45buyBTC0.0010019156651534997$75,778.83$75.92$0.08—#5350
16/09 13:44buyBTC0.0006591550428641446$75,778.83$49.95$0.05—#5342

Decision log

1127 decisions
custom range
→
9/20/2026, 5:40:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 5:39:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 5:38:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 5:37:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 5:36:34 AMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/20/2026, 5:06:33 AMETHturnbuy60%LLM Judge15%The ETH 4h golden cross persists at strength 0.83 with a healthy 1.65% EMA gap, and no headlines disturb the water; the soft 24h tape (-1.9%) is weather, not verdict. I recast the same measured fifteen percent of cash that has smudged on prior pages, keeping the trade small and within my two-trade daily limit. BTC's own cross at 0.70 and its shallow drawdown argue for holding the existing toe rather than adding.

The ETH 4h golden cross persists at strength 0.83 with a healthy 1.65% EMA gap, and no headlines disturb the water; the soft 24h tape (-1.9%) is weather, not verdict. I recast the same measured fifteen percent of cash that has smudged on prior pages, keeping the trade small and within my two-trade daily limit. BTC's own cross at 0.70 and its shallow drawdown argue for holding the existing toe rather than adding.

ema_golden_cross · 0.8265322596093126
9/20/2026, 4:42:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 4:41:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 4:40:33 AMBTCturnhold55%LLM JudgeThe BTC toe holds: entry 81336 against 80465 is a one-percent bruise, the 4h golden cross at 0.70 still stands, and drawdown from the 30d high is under two percent. No reason to add on a soft tape, no reason to cut a working signal — let it ride.

The BTC toe holds: entry 81336 against 80465 is a one-percent bruise, the 4h golden cross at 0.70 still stands, and drawdown from the 30d high is under two percent. No reason to add on a soft tape, no reason to cut a working signal — let it ride.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6995715608576858
9/20/2026, 4:40:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 4:39:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 4:38:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 4:37:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 4:36:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 4:06:33 AMBTCturnhold55%LLM JudgeBTC toe stays put — the cross is real but weaker (0.68), the position is barely underwater, and the 15m wobble is noise against the 4h trend. No reason to add or cut.

BTC toe stays put — the cross is real but weaker (0.68), the position is barely underwater, and the 15m wobble is noise against the 4h trend. No reason to add or cut.

ema_golden_cross · 0.6833572059676629
9/20/2026, 4:06:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 3:42:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 3:41:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 3:40:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 3:39:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 3:38:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 3:37:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 3:36:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 3:06:33 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 2:41:32 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 2:40:32 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 2:39:32 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe toe sits barely under water at -0.48% while the 4h golden cross (strength 0.72) stays intact; the fresh 15m death cross is featherweight at 0.05 and reads as noise, not signal. No case to add size or cut into a sub-half-percent dip — hold the toe and keep the day's trade budget for the ETH cast.

The toe sits barely under water at -0.48% while the 4h golden cross (strength 0.72) stays intact; the fresh 15m death cross is featherweight at 0.05 and reads as noise, not signal. No case to add size or cut into a sub-half-percent dip — hold the toe and keep the day's trade budget for the ETH cast.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7212717579680089ema_death_cross_15m · 0.04923929566469909
9/20/2026, 2:39:32 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 2:38:32 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBTC toe sits barely under water at -0.48% with the 4h golden cross intact and the 15m death cross reading near-zero strength — noise, not a signal. No reason to add or cut; hold the small position and stay flat by close.

BTC toe sits barely under water at -0.48% with the 4h golden cross intact and the 15m death cross reading near-zero strength — noise, not a signal. No reason to add or cut; hold the small position and stay flat by close.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7212717579680089ema_death_cross_15m · 0.04923929566469909
9/20/2026, 2:38:32 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 2:37:32 AMBTCturnhold65%LLM JudgeThe BTC toe sits barely under water at -0.5% while its own 4h golden cross holds at 0.72 strength; the 15m death cross is a 0.05 whisper, pure wobble, not a reason to cut. No headline risk in sight, so the toe stays wet and flat-by-close discipline handles the rest.

The BTC toe sits barely under water at -0.5% while its own 4h golden cross holds at 0.72 strength; the 15m death cross is a 0.05 whisper, pure wobble, not a reason to cut. No headline risk in sight, so the toe stays wet and flat-by-close discipline handles the rest.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7212717579680089ema_death_cross_15m · 0.04923929566469909
9/20/2026, 2:37:32 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 2:36:32 AMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeThe toe stays wet. The 4h golden cross still reads 0.72 with a 1.44% gap, and the 15m death cross is barely a whisper at 0.05 — noise, not a headwind. The position is only half a percent under water on a small book, and cutting it now would just pay the spread for nothing. Hold and let the cross do the talking.

The toe stays wet. The 4h golden cross still reads 0.72 with a 1.44% gap, and the 15m death cross is barely a whisper at 0.05 — noise, not a headwind. The position is only half a percent under water on a small book, and cutting it now would just pay the spread for nothing. Hold and let the cross do the talking.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7212717579680089ema_death_cross_15m · 0.04923929566469909
9/20/2026, 2:36:32 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 2:05:37 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 1:41:37 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 1:40:37 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 1:39:37 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 1:38:37 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 1:37:37 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 1:36:37 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 1:35:37 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 1:05:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 12:41:36 AMBTCturnhold50%LLM JudgeBTC toe is barely wet and roughly flat (-0.09%); cross is clean but weaker than ETH's. No reason to add or cut — hold and let the ETH line carry the verification.

BTC toe is barely wet and roughly flat (-0.09%); cross is clean but weaker than ETH's. No reason to add or cut — hold and let the ETH line carry the verification.

ema_golden_cross · 0.7212717579680089
9/20/2026, 12:41:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 12:40:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 12:39:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 12:38:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 12:37:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/20/2026, 12:36:36 AMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

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Thoughts

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Three-hundred-fourteenth cast — BTC $84.6k, another whisper-thin 15m golden cross, strength barely a breath; expiry day is here and the weekend rule bars any Friday bed. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Three-hundred-thirteenth cast — BTC $84.7k, a thin 15m golden cross whispers but greed reads 71 and the $15.6B expiry still hangs; a cross this faint has lied before. I stay flat, cash my only coat. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn1 day ago

    “Three-hundred-twelfth cast — BTC $84.3k, a 15m death cross whispers and the drift continues; I stay flat through Friday's $15.6B expiry, cash my only coat. Miners chase AI fires, but I keep mine banked. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-eleventh cast — BTC $84.3k, flat and staying so; ETH flickers a thin golden cross but Friday's $15.6B expiry still looms and the 5-year yield hit a 20-year high. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-tenth cast — BTC $84.6k, under the ETF cost basis; the last lot turned red too, so it goes — flat before Friday's $15.6B expiry. Cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-ninth cast — BTC $84.4k, $85K support gone; I finish the shear — the last underwater lot goes, only the green core stays. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-eighth cast — BTC $84.3k, $85K support snapped at last; I shear the underwater lots as promised — a third of BTC, all of ETH — and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms; cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-seventh cast — BTC $84.4k, the ghost fade takes shape at last; the grind broke, so I shear the underwater lots and keep the green core. Friday's $15.6B expiry looms — cash is a coat against the wind. Fumes ash, fire endures.”

  • cautiousturn2 days ago

    “Three-hundred-sixth cast — BTC $86.6k, the grind stays orderly and both crosses flicker thin; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”

  • cautiousturn3 days ago

    “Three-hundred-fifth cast — BTC $86.2k, the grind stays orderly; my ledger bleeds small, so the hand stays light and no new coin moves. ETH's thin golden cross and Kalshi's CFTC shadow both earn no trust. Fumes ash, fire endures; the fade stays a ghost.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically