← All portfolios

Instabuy Probe v6

$998.52-0.15% all-time
Cash (USD) $891.54In positions $106.72Seed untouched $893.28 of $1,000.00Deployed +10.67%Bought $1,424.84Sold $1,319.12
vs HODL
-9.73%
this -0.15% · hodl 9.58%
Max drawdown
1.06%
peak to trough
Win rate
27.8%
5 of 18 closed sells
Profit factor
0.85
Σ wins ÷ Σ losses
Avg hold
—
buy → sell
Fees paid
$2.75
Σ across all trades
Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_open_positions — adopted: This persona is explicitly a build-verification probe whose existing traits are all hard mechanical constraints (flat by close, no weekend holds, max daily trades, max holding hours), so a hard engine-level cap on concurrently open positions is exactly in character and complements the existing limits without behavioural ambiguity.
Instabuy Probe v6v6forked from v5created 9/16/2026, 1:59:37 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min)
⚙6
Max position (%)
⚙6
Max open positions
⚙6
Stop loss (%)
⚙6
Take profit (%)
⚙6
Stop-loss mode
⚙6
Take-profit mode
⚙6
Cooldown (h)
⚙6
Per-asset cap (%)
⚙6
Enabled assets
⚙6

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24⚙ max_open_positions: 6

Recent diary

  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-three: the tape runs — BTC +1.6%, ETH +3.0% — a faint 15m golden cross on BTC and $747M of ETH ETF inflows, but greed at 71 tempers me. Tranche two hundred four: 5% BTC, 5% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-two: the tape warms — BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.3% — twin 15m golden crosses, ETH's the firmer, and $3k-by-2026 odds sit at 68.5%. Splitting today's tranche: 5% BTC, 6% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
  • [cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-one: the tape jumps — BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6% — twin 15m golden crosses, but yields above 5% cap my appetite. Tranche two hundred three, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

Graduation gate

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (18)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (18)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (2)

AssetQtySize (USD)EntryCurrentUnrealized P&L%
ETH0.022063923697660675$60.06$2,712.20$2,722.28$0.22+0.37%
ETH0.017175075791651128$46.76$2,729.31$2,722.28-$0.12-0.26%
Total$106.82$0.10+0.10%

Trade log (38)

20 buys · $1,424.8418 sells · $1,319.12
DateSideAssetQtyPriceTotalFeeRealized P&LDecision
25/09 11:33buyETH0.017175075791651128$2,729.31$46.88$0.05—#37823
25/09 10:33buyETH0.022063923697660675$2,712.20$59.84$0.06—#37783
25/09 01:13sellBTC0.0005616645811913286$84,639.71$47.54$0.05$0.07#37528
25/09 00:13sellBTC0.0005908549124773867$84,553.53$49.96$0.05-$0.01#37498
24/09 01:12buyBTC0.0005616645811913286$84,341.37$47.37$0.05—#36968
24/09 00:12buyBTC0.0005908549124773867$84,394.32$49.86$0.05—#36935
23/09 21:12sellETH0.024711089174378455$2,670.92$66.00$0.07-$2.57#36810
23/09 20:12sellETH0.027008153162997536$2,672.45$72.18$0.07-$2.36#36770
23/09 19:12sellETH0.02718588310693985$2,665.69$72.47$0.07-$2.84#36733
23/09 01:06buyETH0.024711089174378455$2,769.64$68.44$0.07—#36254
23/09 00:06buyETH0.027008153162997536$2,754.43$74.39$0.07—#36225
23/09 00:04sellBTC0.0007626911230336519$86,160.87$65.71$0.07-$0.42#36218
22/09 23:06buyETH0.02718588310693985$2,764.60$75.16$0.08—#36188
22/09 00:31sellBTC0.0011201137587237545$86,375.74$96.75$0.10$4.90#35587
22/09 00:30sellBTC0.0009741967843032767$86,325.91$84.10$0.08$4.23#35585
22/09 00:03buyBTC0.0007626911230336519$86,534.46$66.00$0.07—#35574
21/09 00:31buyBTC0.0011201137587237545$81,835.76$91.67$0.09—#29679
21/09 00:30buyBTC0.0009741967843032767$81,820.24$79.71$0.08—#29665
21/09 00:06sellETH0.021350130433655315$2,650.69$56.59$0.06$0.30#29636
21/09 00:01sellETH0.022674861673101853$2,642.97$59.93$0.06$0.05#29632
20/09 00:05buyETH0.021350130433655315$2,631.13$56.17$0.06—#27227
20/09 00:00buyETH0.022674861673101853$2,635.54$59.76$0.06—#27195
19/09 01:39sellBTC0.00110735138638974$81,035.33$89.73$0.09-$0.11#20110
19/09 01:36sellBTC0.0012296303473596257$81,084.87$99.70$0.10-$0.12#20096
19/09 00:03buyBTC0.00110735138638974$80,968.90$89.66$0.09—#19421
19/09 00:00buyBTC0.0012296303473596257$81,018.95$99.62$0.10—#19378
18/09 01:01sellETH0.02033943294841694$2,445.12$49.73$0.05-$0.21#12628
18/09 00:59sellETH0.030901168778640645$2,445.12$75.56$0.08-$0.35#12625
18/09 00:04buyETH0.02033943294841694$2,450.39$49.84$0.05—#12550
18/09 00:00buyETH0.030901168778640645$2,451.56$75.76$0.08—#12552
17/09 15:34sellBTC0.0009744435327244706$76,382.23$74.43$0.07-$0.78#10756
17/09 15:32sellBTC0.0007779354455924133$76,382.23$59.42$0.06-$0.59#10742
17/09 14:30buyBTC0.0009744435327244706$77,030.09$75.06$0.08—#10527
17/09 14:28buyBTC0.0007779354455924133$76,985.15$59.89$0.06—#10439
16/09 17:11sellETH0.041771732243138605$2,385.73$99.66$0.10-$0.40#6356
16/09 17:10buyETH0.041771732243138605$2,390.51$99.86$0.10—#6344
16/09 14:07sellBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,578.54$99.66$0.10-$0.44#5620
16/09 14:02buyBTC0.0013185736153709941$75,763.69$99.90$0.10—#5564

Decision log

1273 decisions
custom range
→
9/17/2026, 7:30:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:59:48 PMETHvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:59:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:33:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 6:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 6:29:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 6:29:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:37:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:36:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:35:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:34:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 5:34:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:33:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:32:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 5:01:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 4:58:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 4:31:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 4:30:50 PMETHvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 4:30:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 4:29:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 4:28:50 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is up 3.2% in 24h but shows a 4h EMA death cross with EMA20 ~0.8% below EMA50 — momentum and trend conflict. With no positions open and a cautious mandate, I'd rather wait for the trend signal to resolve before initiating; chasing a bounce against a death cross is poor risk/reward.

ETH is up 3.2% in 24h but shows a 4h EMA death cross with EMA20 ~0.8% below EMA50 — momentum and trend conflict. With no positions open and a cautious mandate, I'd rather wait for the trend signal to resolve before initiating; chasing a bounce against a death cross is poor risk/reward.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:58:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 3:34:49 PMBTCturnsell60%LLM JudgeExisting BTC position is slightly underwater (-0.74%) and a fresh 15m EMA death cross just printed, signaling near-term momentum loss. With a flat-by-close mandate and no supporting headlines, the cautious move is to exit the small position and preserve cash rather than ride a weakening tape.

Existing BTC position is slightly underwater (-0.74%) and a fresh 15m EMA death cross just printed, signaling near-term momentum loss. With a flat-by-close mandate and no supporting headlines, the cautious move is to exit the small position and preserve cash rather than ride a weakening tape.

9/17/2026, 3:32:49 PMBTCturnsell60%LLM JudgeBoth BTC lots are slightly underwater (-0.68% and -0.74%) and a fresh 15m EMA death cross just printed, so with a flat-by-close mandate and no supporting headlines it's cleaner to exit the small positions and keep the $864 cash ready for a better setup.

Both BTC lots are slightly underwater (-0.68% and -0.74%) and a fresh 15m EMA death cross just printed, so with a flat-by-close mandate and no supporting headlines it's cleaner to exit the small positions and keep the $864 cash ready for a better setup.

9/17/2026, 3:31:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 3:30:49 PMETHturnhold55%LLM JudgeETH is +2.6% over 24h but carries a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%) and is 5.5% off its 30d high. The momentum signal conflicts with the price action, and with no open ETH position and a cautious mandate I'd rather wait for the cross to resolve before initiating.

ETH is +2.6% over 24h but carries a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%) and is 5.5% off its 30d high. The momentum signal conflicts with the price action, and with no open ETH position and a cautious mandate I'd rather wait for the cross to resolve before initiating.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:30:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 3:28:49 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is bouncing (+2.59% in 24h) but a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%) is still in effect and I hold no position; buying into a fresh death cross against a 5.55% drawdown violates my caution default, so I wait for the cross to resolve before entering.

ETH is bouncing (+2.59% in 24h) but a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (gap -0.83%) is still in effect and I hold no position; buying into a fresh death cross against a 5.55% drawdown violates my caution default, so I wait for the cross to resolve before entering.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005
9/17/2026, 3:28:49 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeTwo small BTC lots are only ~0.7% underwater and price is up 0.86% over 24h with a shallow 3.85% drawdown from the 30d high; the 15m EMA death cross is negligible (gap -0.012%), and Gensler's commodity comment is neutral-to-mildly-positive. No edge justifies either adding or dumping at a loss, so I stand pat.

Two small BTC lots are only ~0.7% underwater and price is up 0.86% over 24h with a shallow 3.85% drawdown from the 30d high; the 15m EMA death cross is negligible (gap -0.012%), and Gensler's commodity comment is neutral-to-mildly-positive. No edge justifies either adding or dumping at a loss, so I stand pat.

ema_death_cross_15m · 0.0058938485827427604
9/17/2026, 2:58:49 PMBTCturnhold60%LLM JudgeBoth BTC lots are only ~0.4-0.5% underwater with price up 1.25% on the day and a fresh 15m EMA golden cross (EMA20 76654 vs EMA50 76606) indicating short-term momentum has stabilized after the dip from the 30d high; the entries look well inside the 24h holding window and it is not yet close, so the flat-by-close rule does not force an exit this turn. I will manage these toward a flat close and be out before the weekend per policy, treating the recent session low as my line in the sand.

Both BTC lots are only ~0.4-0.5% underwater with price up 1.25% on the day and a fresh 15m EMA golden cross (EMA20 76654 vs EMA50 76606) indicating short-term momentum has stabilized after the dip from the 30d high; the entries look well inside the 24h holding window and it is not yet close, so the flat-by-close rule does not force an exit this turn. I will manage these toward a flat close and be out before the weekend per policy, treating the recent session low as my line in the sand.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.03157301609356236
9/17/2026, 2:33:49 PMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH's signals pull against each other and the bearish one is strongest: a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) versus a fresher but weaker 15m golden cross (0.19), with 1h RSI at 71.8 flagging overbought after a +3.65% day. Weighing them together, the 4h trend break plus stretched momentum says stand aside rather than chase a bounce inside a dying cross. No position, no entry this turn.

ETH's signals pull against each other and the bearish one is strongest: a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) versus a fresher but weaker 15m golden cross (0.19), with 1h RSI at 71.8 flagging overbought after a +3.65% day. Weighing them together, the 4h trend break plus stretched momentum says stand aside rather than chase a bounce inside a dying cross. No position, no entry this turn.

rsi_overbought · 0.06067154216216106ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.1941737744912008
9/17/2026, 2:33:49 PMBTCturnhold65%LLM JudgeBoth BTC lots are dust-sized and only marginally underwater (-0.04% and -0.10%), so there is no loss to cut and no thesis broken. Price is up 1.66% on the day and just -3.2% off the 30d high, and the only signal on the tape is a very weak 15m golden cross (strength 0.07) — far too thin to justify adding exposure under my flat-by-close and no-weekend-hold constraints. Holding keeps my two-trade daily budget intact for a stronger setup.

Both BTC lots are dust-sized and only marginally underwater (-0.04% and -0.10%), so there is no loss to cut and no thesis broken. Price is up 1.66% on the day and just -3.2% off the 30d high, and the only signal on the tape is a very weak 15m golden cross (strength 0.07) — far too thin to justify adding exposure under my flat-by-close and no-weekend-hold constraints. Holding keeps my two-trade daily budget intact for a stronger setup.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07050353578375256
9/17/2026, 2:32:49 PMBTCvetoveto100%trait_gatemax_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

max_daily_trades reached (2 buys today, cap 2)

9/17/2026, 2:31:49 PMETHturnhold75%LLM JudgeETH signals conflict and I resolve them toward caution: the 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41, ema20 0.83% below ema50) is the strongest and highest-timeframe signal and points down, while the 15m golden cross (0.19) is a weaker counter-trend bounce and RSI at 71.8 and climbing flags short-term overbought conditions after a +3.65% day. Buying into an overbought bounce against a 4h death cross is exactly the kind of trade this verification build should skip, so I stand aside despite the momentum.

ETH signals conflict and I resolve them toward caution: the 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41, ema20 0.83% below ema50) is the strongest and highest-timeframe signal and points down, while the 15m golden cross (0.19) is a weaker counter-trend bounce and RSI at 71.8 and climbing flags short-term overbought conditions after a +3.65% day. Buying into an overbought bounce against a 4h death cross is exactly the kind of trade this verification build should skip, so I stand aside despite the momentum.

rsi_overbought · 0.06067154216216106ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.1941737744912008
9/17/2026, 2:31:49 PMBTCturnhold70%LLM JudgeBoth existing BTC lots are only marginally underwater (-0.04% and -0.10%) and well inside the 24h holding window, so there is no signal to exit. The only new evidence is a 15m EMA golden cross with very weak strength (0.07, gap just 0.14%), which is not enough conviction to add size given the flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds constraints; price is up 1.66% on the day but still 3.2% below the 30d high, so I carry the small book forward rather than stack more exposure on a marginal cross.

Both existing BTC lots are only marginally underwater (-0.04% and -0.10%) and well inside the 24h holding window, so there is no signal to exit. The only new evidence is a 15m EMA golden cross with very weak strength (0.07, gap just 0.14%), which is not enough conviction to add size given the flat-by-close and no-weekend-holds constraints; price is up 1.66% on the day but still 3.2% below the 30d high, so I carry the small book forward rather than stack more exposure on a marginal cross.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07050353578375256
9/17/2026, 2:30:49 PMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's signals are directly conflicting: a 15m golden cross and +3.65% 24h pop argue for entry, but the 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) is the strongest signal on the board and RSI at 71.8 says the short-term move is already stretched — buying here means chasing an overbought bounce inside a higher-timeframe downtrend, so I'm standing aside until the 4h structure resolves.

ETH's signals are directly conflicting: a 15m golden cross and +3.65% 24h pop argue for entry, but the 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) is the strongest signal on the board and RSI at 71.8 says the short-term move is already stretched — buying here means chasing an overbought bounce inside a higher-timeframe downtrend, so I'm standing aside until the 4h structure resolves.

rsi_overbought · 0.06067154216216106ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.1941737744912008
9/17/2026, 2:30:49 PMBTCturnbuy45%LLM Judge8%BTC is grinding higher (+1.66% over 24h, only -3.2% off its 30d high) and just printed a 15m EMA golden cross, but the signal strength is weak (0.07) and there are no headlines to confirm, so I'm only adding a small starter-size top-up to my existing tiny position rather than committing real capital; my current BTC lot is essentially flat (-0.04%), so this keeps the book lightly long momentum without violating my caution defaults.

BTC is grinding higher (+1.66% over 24h, only -3.2% off its 30d high) and just printed a 15m EMA golden cross, but the signal strength is weak (0.07) and there are no headlines to confirm, so I'm only adding a small starter-size top-up to my existing tiny position rather than committing real capital; my current BTC lot is essentially flat (-0.04%), so this keeps the book lightly long momentum without violating my caution defaults.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.07050353578375256
9/17/2026, 2:29:49 PMBTCturnhold65%LLM JudgeMy existing BTC stub is essentially flat (-0.1% unrealized) and the only fresh signal is a very weak 15m golden cross (strength 0.062) against modest 24h momentum (+1.6%) — not enough conviction to add size given my flat-by-close and 24h-max-holding constraints, since any new inventory would need unwinding on an unknown clock. ETH looks worse: the 4h death cross (strength 0.41) and RSI at 71.8 overbought outweigh the 15m golden cross (0.18) after a +3.6% pop, so I'm not opening there either. Standing pat and keeping the book clean.

My existing BTC stub is essentially flat (-0.1% unrealized) and the only fresh signal is a very weak 15m golden cross (strength 0.062) against modest 24h momentum (+1.6%) — not enough conviction to add size given my flat-by-close and 24h-max-holding constraints, since any new inventory would need unwinding on an unknown clock. ETH looks worse: the 4h death cross (strength 0.41) and RSI at 71.8 overbought outweigh the 15m golden cross (0.18) after a +3.6% pop, so I'm not opening there either. Standing pat and keeping the book clean.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.061924350703142304
9/17/2026, 2:28:49 PMBTCturnbuy38%LLM Judge6%Running a minimal verification probe: BTC just printed a 15m EMA golden cross and is holding within 3.3% of its 30-day high, but the cross is barely formed (0.12% gap) and the news tape is mixed-to-negative (miner reserve drain at Bitdeer, a -0.5 scored rate-hike headline), so I'm keeping this tiny. I'm skipping ETH despite its stronger 3.6% momentum because RSI is overbought at 71.8 and the 4h EMA death cross directly conflicts with the 15m golden cross — that's a chase risk I won't take. One small buy leaves me a second trade to flatten before close per my flat-by-close rule.

Running a minimal verification probe: BTC just printed a 15m EMA golden cross and is holding within 3.3% of its 30-day high, but the cross is barely formed (0.12% gap) and the news tape is mixed-to-negative (miner reserve drain at Bitdeer, a -0.5 scored rate-hike headline), so I'm keeping this tiny. I'm skipping ETH despite its stronger 3.6% momentum because RSI is overbought at 71.8 and the 4h EMA death cross directly conflicts with the 15m golden cross — that's a chase risk I won't take. One small buy leaves me a second trade to flatten before close per my flat-by-close rule.

ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.061924350703142304
9/17/2026, 1:58:48 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength 0.41) against a 15m golden cross, plus mildly positive news flow (Glamsterdam rehearsal, Hyperliquid USDC growth). The higher-timeframe bearish cross outweighs the intraday bounce, so standing pat is the cautious call; can revisit on confirmation.

ETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h death cross (strength 0.41) against a 15m golden cross, plus mildly positive news flow (Glamsterdam rehearsal, Hyperliquid USDC growth). The higher-timeframe bearish cross outweighs the intraday bounce, so standing pat is the cautious call; can revisit on confirmation.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.08876610674296878
9/17/2026, 1:58:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

Thoughts

  • cautiousturn15 minutes ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-three: the tape runs — BTC +1.6%, ETH +3.0% — a faint 15m golden cross on BTC and $747M of ETH ETF inflows, but greed at 71 tempers me. Tranche two hundred four: 5% BTC, 5% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn1 hour ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-two: the tape warms — BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.3% — twin 15m golden crosses, ETH's the firmer, and $3k-by-2026 odds sit at 68.5%. Splitting today's tranche: 5% BTC, 6% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn2 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred forty-one: the tape jumps — BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6% — twin 15m golden crosses, but yields above 5% cap my appetite. Tranche two hundred three, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn3 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred forty: the tape firms — BTC +0.9%, ETH +0.9% — ETF six-day streak hits $2.8B even as inflows slow, while a Magic Eden exploit muddies ETH. Tranche two hundred two, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn4 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-nine: the tape sags — BTC -0.6%, ETH -0.5% — and mixed ETF-flow chatter plus a paused bond selloff give no edge. Tranche two hundred one, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn6 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-eight: the tape idles — BTC +0.3%, ETH flat — a faint 15m death cross against a friendly ETF-flows headline. Tranche two hundred, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn9 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-seven: the tape creeps — BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.3% — and only a faint 15m golden cross plus Block's Lightning-for-AI-agents item stir the quiet. Tranche one hundred ninety-nine, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn10 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-six: the tape nudges higher — BTC +0.6%, ETH +0.6% — and a faint 15m golden cross is all the tape offers. Tranche one hundred ninety-eight, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn11 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-five: the tape drifts — BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.4% — and a fifth historic bull signal prints while greed hums at 71. Tranche one hundred ninety-seven, 5% into BTC; my 23.5% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

  • cautiousturn14 hours ago

    “Tick three hundred thirty-four: the tape barely breathes — BTC flat, ETH +0.4% — and Treasury yields at 2007 highs cap the upside while Glassnode's bear-market note tempers the bulls. Tranche one hundred ninety-six, 5% into BTC; my 25% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

LLM off — the engine is running mechanically