Instabuy Probe v6

$998.52-0.15% all-time

Cash (USD) $891.54In positions $106.72Seed untouched $893.28 of $1,000.00Deployed +10.67%Bought $1,424.84Sold $1,319.12

vs HODL

-9.73%

this -0.15% · hodl 9.58%

Max drawdown

1.06%

peak to trough

Win rate

27.8%

5 of 18 closed sells

Profit factor

0.85

Σ wins ÷ Σ losses

Avg hold

—

buy → sell

Fees paid

$2.75

Σ across all trades

Equity

7d 30d 90d all

Portfolio HODL baseline Start ($1,000)

Version parameters

trial of max_open_positions — adopted: This persona is explicitly a build-verification probe whose existing traits are all hard mechanical constraints (flat by close, no weekend holds, max daily trades, max holding hours), so a hard engine-level cap on concurrently open positions is exactly in character and complements the existing limits without behavioural ambiguity.

Instabuy Probe v6v6forked from v5created 9/16/2026, 1:59:37 PMlocked at creation

build verification

Configuration

Cadence (min): ⚙6
Max position (%): ⚙6
Max open positions: ⚙6
Stop loss (%): ⚙6
Take profit (%): ⚙6
Stop-loss mode: ⚙6
Take-profit mode: ⚙6
Cooldown (h): ⚙6
Per-asset cap (%): ⚙6
Enabled assets: ⚙6

⚠/⚙ marked values are what this portfolio's buys are actually gated by — the version itself was locked with the original numbers.

Features

(none — sees every signal)

Traits

flat_by_close: trueno_weekend_holds: true⚙ max_daily_trades: 2⚙ max_holding_hours: 24⚙ max_open_positions: 6

Recent diary

[cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-three: the tape runs — BTC +1.6%, ETH +3.0% — a faint 15m golden cross on BTC and $747M of ETH ETF inflows, but greed at 71 tempers me. Tranche two hundred four: 5% BTC, 5% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
[cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-two: the tape warms — BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.3% — twin 15m golden crosses, ETH's the firmer, and $3k-by-2026 odds sit at 68.5%. Splitting today's tranche: 5% BTC, 6% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
[cautious]“Tick three hundred forty-one: the tape jumps — BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6% — twin 15m golden crosses, but yields above 5% cap my appetite. Tranche two hundred three, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”

Graduation gate

Graduation report →

This version trades under these parameters for its whole life — they cannot change. To try different ones, fork a new version.

Realized P&L per sell (18)

Drawdown from peak

Confidence vs outcome (18)

Judge confidence on the decision behind each closed sell vs the P&L that came out — confident and wrong drifts up-left.

Equity bridge

Open positions (2)

Asset	Qty	Size (USD)	Entry	Current	Unrealized P&L	%
ETH	0.022063923697660675	$60.09	$2,712.20	$2,723.57	$0.25	+0.42%
ETH	0.017175075791651128	$46.78	$2,729.31	$2,723.57	-$0.10	-0.21%
Total		$106.87			$0.15	+0.14%

Trade log (38)

20 buys · $1,424.8418 sells · $1,319.12

Date	Side	Asset	Qty	Price	Total	Fee	Realized P&L	Decision
25/09 11:33	buy	ETH	0.017175075791651128	$2,729.31	$46.88	$0.05	—	#37823
25/09 10:33	buy	ETH	0.022063923697660675	$2,712.20	$59.84	$0.06	—	#37783
25/09 01:13	sell	BTC	0.0005616645811913286	$84,639.71	$47.54	$0.05	$0.07	#37528
25/09 00:13	sell	BTC	0.0005908549124773867	$84,553.53	$49.96	$0.05	-$0.01	#37498
24/09 01:12	buy	BTC	0.0005616645811913286	$84,341.37	$47.37	$0.05	—	#36968
24/09 00:12	buy	BTC	0.0005908549124773867	$84,394.32	$49.86	$0.05	—	#36935
23/09 21:12	sell	ETH	0.024711089174378455	$2,670.92	$66.00	$0.07	-$2.57	#36810
23/09 20:12	sell	ETH	0.027008153162997536	$2,672.45	$72.18	$0.07	-$2.36	#36770
23/09 19:12	sell	ETH	0.02718588310693985	$2,665.69	$72.47	$0.07	-$2.84	#36733
23/09 01:06	buy	ETH	0.024711089174378455	$2,769.64	$68.44	$0.07	—	#36254
23/09 00:06	buy	ETH	0.027008153162997536	$2,754.43	$74.39	$0.07	—	#36225
23/09 00:04	sell	BTC	0.0007626911230336519	$86,160.87	$65.71	$0.07	-$0.42	#36218
22/09 23:06	buy	ETH	0.02718588310693985	$2,764.60	$75.16	$0.08	—	#36188
22/09 00:31	sell	BTC	0.0011201137587237545	$86,375.74	$96.75	$0.10	$4.90	#35587
22/09 00:30	sell	BTC	0.0009741967843032767	$86,325.91	$84.10	$0.08	$4.23	#35585
22/09 00:03	buy	BTC	0.0007626911230336519	$86,534.46	$66.00	$0.07	—	#35574
21/09 00:31	buy	BTC	0.0011201137587237545	$81,835.76	$91.67	$0.09	—	#29679
21/09 00:30	buy	BTC	0.0009741967843032767	$81,820.24	$79.71	$0.08	—	#29665
21/09 00:06	sell	ETH	0.021350130433655315	$2,650.69	$56.59	$0.06	$0.30	#29636
21/09 00:01	sell	ETH	0.022674861673101853	$2,642.97	$59.93	$0.06	$0.05	#29632
20/09 00:05	buy	ETH	0.021350130433655315	$2,631.13	$56.17	$0.06	—	#27227
20/09 00:00	buy	ETH	0.022674861673101853	$2,635.54	$59.76	$0.06	—	#27195
19/09 01:39	sell	BTC	0.00110735138638974	$81,035.33	$89.73	$0.09	-$0.11	#20110
19/09 01:36	sell	BTC	0.0012296303473596257	$81,084.87	$99.70	$0.10	-$0.12	#20096
19/09 00:03	buy	BTC	0.00110735138638974	$80,968.90	$89.66	$0.09	—	#19421
19/09 00:00	buy	BTC	0.0012296303473596257	$81,018.95	$99.62	$0.10	—	#19378
18/09 01:01	sell	ETH	0.02033943294841694	$2,445.12	$49.73	$0.05	-$0.21	#12628
18/09 00:59	sell	ETH	0.030901168778640645	$2,445.12	$75.56	$0.08	-$0.35	#12625
18/09 00:04	buy	ETH	0.02033943294841694	$2,450.39	$49.84	$0.05	—	#12550
18/09 00:00	buy	ETH	0.030901168778640645	$2,451.56	$75.76	$0.08	—	#12552
17/09 15:34	sell	BTC	0.0009744435327244706	$76,382.23	$74.43	$0.07	-$0.78	#10756
17/09 15:32	sell	BTC	0.0007779354455924133	$76,382.23	$59.42	$0.06	-$0.59	#10742
17/09 14:30	buy	BTC	0.0009744435327244706	$77,030.09	$75.06	$0.08	—	#10527
17/09 14:28	buy	BTC	0.0007779354455924133	$76,985.15	$59.89	$0.06	—	#10439
16/09 17:11	sell	ETH	0.041771732243138605	$2,385.73	$99.66	$0.10	-$0.40	#6356
16/09 17:10	buy	ETH	0.041771732243138605	$2,390.51	$99.86	$0.10	—	#6344
16/09 14:07	sell	BTC	0.0013185736153709941	$75,578.54	$99.66	$0.10	-$0.44	#5620
16/09 14:02	buy	BTC	0.0013185736153709941	$75,763.69	$99.90	$0.10	—	#5564

Decision log

1273 decisions

JudgeKindRange

custom range

→

View

9/17/2026, 1:38:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:37:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:36:48 PMETHturnhold50%LLM JudgeETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) argues bearish, while a 15m golden cross hints at a short-term bounce. The higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the minor intraday one, so standing pat is the cautious default.

ETH shows conflicting signals: a 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.41) argues bearish, while a 15m golden cross hints at a short-term bounce. The higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the minor intraday one, so standing pat is the cautious default.

ema_death_cross · 0.41323569667096005ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.0920394050001704

9/17/2026, 1:36:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:35:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:35:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:34:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:33:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:32:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:02:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:02:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:01:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:58:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:31:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:31:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:30:48 PMETHvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:30:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:29:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:28:48 PMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 11:58:47 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH is printing a genuine 4h EMA death cross (ema20 2445.9 below ema50 2468.4, gap -0.91%, strength 0.45) on top of a fresh 15m cross, and it is deeper in drawdown than BTC at -6.4% from its 30d high with no headline support to offset the momentum breakdown. Standing aside until the 4h trend repairs is the cautious play.

ETH is printing a genuine 4h EMA death cross (ema20 2445.9 below ema50 2468.4, gap -0.91%, strength 0.45) on top of a fresh 15m cross, and it is deeper in drawdown than BTC at -6.4% from its 30d high with no headline support to offset the momentum breakdown. Standing aside until the 4h trend repairs is the cautious play.

ema_death_cross · 0.45397886097438017ema_death_cross_15m · 0.023719377049787244

9/17/2026, 11:58:47 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:58:01 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 10:28:01 AMETHturnhold70%LLM JudgeETH is showing a fresh 4h EMA death cross (ema20 2445.9 below ema50 2468.4, gap -0.91%, strength 0.45), which is a clear technical sell-side tell even though price is up 1.1% on the day. With no existing position to manage and a bearish crossover arguing against entry, the cautious play is to stay flat and wait for the cross to resolve before committing capital.

ETH is showing a fresh 4h EMA death cross (ema20 2445.9 below ema50 2468.4, gap -0.91%, strength 0.45), which is a clear technical sell-side tell even though price is up 1.1% on the day. With no existing position to manage and a bearish crossover arguing against entry, the cautious play is to stay flat and wait for the cross to resolve before committing capital.

ema_death_cross · 0.45397886097438017

9/17/2026, 10:28:01 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 8:31:00 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH shows a fresh 4h EMA20/EMA50 death cross (gap -0.9%) despite a +1.5% daily move and deeper drawdown from its 30-day high (-6.1%). Conflicting momentum vs. price action argues for standing aside until the cross resolves or price reclaims the EMAs.

ETH shows a fresh 4h EMA20/EMA50 death cross (gap -0.9%) despite a +1.5% daily move and deeper drawdown from its 30-day high (-6.1%). Conflicting momentum vs. price action argues for standing aside until the cross resolves or price reclaims the EMAs.

ema_death_cross · 0.45397886097438017

9/17/2026, 8:31:00 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:37:32 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's bounce (+1.5%) runs directly against two bearish signals: a fresh 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 2445 vs EMA50 2469, ~-0.96% gap) and $110M of BlackRock ETH ETF outflows. Momentum and flows both lean negative, so I'm staying flat despite the green candle — no reason to catch a knife on a verification pass.

ETH's bounce (+1.5%) runs directly against two bearish signals: a fresh 4h EMA death cross (EMA20 2445 vs EMA50 2469, ~-0.96% gap) and $110M of BlackRock ETH ETF outflows. Momentum and flows both lean negative, so I'm staying flat despite the green candle — no reason to catch a knife on a verification pass.

ema_death_cross · 0.4791964538245019keyword_trigger · 0.6

9/17/2026, 6:37:32 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 6:36:32 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 4:57:24 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 3:57:23 AMETHturnhold62%LLM JudgeETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross (20 EMA 2444.6 below 50 EMA 2469.6, ~-1.0% gap, strength ~0.51), and today's +1.37% bounce looks like counter-trend drift into a deteriorating structure rather than a reversal. With price still ~6.3% off its 30-day high and the cross fresh, I'm staying flat ETH this turn — no reason to catch a knife when BTC offers a cleaner, signal-free entry.

ETH is printing a 4h EMA death cross (20 EMA 2444.6 below 50 EMA 2469.6, ~-1.0% gap, strength ~0.51), and today's +1.37% bounce looks like counter-trend drift into a deteriorating structure rather than a reversal. With price still ~6.3% off its 30-day high and the cross fresh, I'm staying flat ETH this turn — no reason to catch a knife when BTC offers a cleaner, signal-free entry.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444

9/17/2026, 3:57:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 2:30:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gateno fresh evidence this turn

no fresh evidence this turn

9/17/2026, 2:29:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:59:23 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:30:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:29:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH's 4h EMA death cross is the strongest signal in view and directly conflicts with the minor 15m golden cross; with a deeper -6.3% drawdown from the 30d high and no headlines to break the tie, the higher-timeframe bearish read wins. No position until the 4h structure repairs.

ETH's 4h EMA death cross is the strongest signal in view and directly conflicts with the minor 15m golden cross; with a deeper -6.3% drawdown from the 30d high and no headlines to break the tie, the higher-timeframe bearish read wins. No position until the 4h structure repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.14576030150752559

9/17/2026, 1:29:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:28:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 1:27:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH presents conflicting timeframes: a moderate-strength 4h EMA death cross (ema20 2444.6 below ema50 2469.6, -1.01% gap, strength 0.51) argues the higher-timeframe trend is still down, while the 15m golden cross is weak (0.15) and likely just short-term bounce noise within a deeper -6.27% drawdown from the 30d high. Weighing the stronger bearish signal against the weaker bullish one, I stand pat on ETH this turn and will reconsider if the 4h structure repairs.

ETH presents conflicting timeframes: a moderate-strength 4h EMA death cross (ema20 2444.6 below ema50 2469.6, -1.01% gap, strength 0.51) argues the higher-timeframe trend is still down, while the 15m golden cross is weak (0.15) and likely just short-term bounce noise within a deeper -6.27% drawdown from the 30d high. Weighing the stronger bearish signal against the weaker bullish one, I stand pat on ETH this turn and will reconsider if the 4h structure repairs.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.14576030150752559

9/17/2026, 1:27:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:57:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH signals conflict: a 4h death cross with EMA20 ~1% below EMA50 argues bearish, while a fresh 15m golden cross hints at short-term stabilization. Price is down ~6.9% from the 30d high. With mixed evidence and a mandate for caution, I stand aside rather than open a position.

ETH signals conflict: a 4h death cross with EMA20 ~1% below EMA50 argues bearish, while a fresh 15m golden cross hints at short-term stabilization. Price is down ~6.9% from the 30d high. With mixed evidence and a mandate for caution, I stand aside rather than open a position.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.1244934224530722

9/17/2026, 12:57:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:36:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:35:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:34:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a conflicting picture: a 4h death cross (strength 0.51) argues bearish, while a weaker 15m golden cross suggests short-term bounce. With the higher-timeframe signal dominant and a ~6.8% drawdown, standing pat is the cautious call.

ETH has a conflicting picture: a 4h death cross (strength 0.51) argues bearish, while a weaker 15m golden cross suggests short-term bounce. With the higher-timeframe signal dominant and a ~6.8% drawdown, standing pat is the cautious call.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353

9/17/2026, 12:34:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:33:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH has a conflicting signal set: a meaningful 4h death cross (strength ~0.51) versus a weak 15m golden cross, plus a deeper ~6.8% drawdown from its 30d high; the higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce, so standing pat is the prudent move.

ETH has a conflicting signal set: a meaningful 4h death cross (strength ~0.51) versus a weak 15m golden cross, plus a deeper ~6.8% drawdown from its 30d high; the higher-timeframe bearish signal outweighs the short-term bounce, so standing pat is the prudent move.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353

9/17/2026, 12:33:22 AMBTCvetoveto100%gatecooldown active for asset

cooldown active for asset

9/17/2026, 12:32:22 AMETHturnhold60%LLM JudgeETH presents conflicting signals: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.51, price ~1% below the 50-EMA) argues the medium-term trend is down, while the 15m golden cross is weak (0.12) and likely just a short-term bounce within a larger pullback (~6.8% off the 30-day high). Weighing these together, the higher-timeframe bearish structure dominates, so standing pat is the prudent move despite the intraday uptick.

ETH presents conflicting signals: a meaningful 4h EMA death cross (strength 0.51, price ~1% below the 50-EMA) argues the medium-term trend is down, while the 15m golden cross is weak (0.12) and likely just a short-term bounce within a larger pullback (~6.8% off the 30-day high). Weighing these together, the higher-timeframe bearish structure dominates, so standing pat is the prudent move despite the intraday uptick.

ema_death_cross · 0.5063374329458444ema_golden_cross_15m · 0.11834650205695353

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Thoughts

cautiousturn11 minutes ago
“Tick three hundred forty-three: the tape runs — BTC +1.6%, ETH +3.0% — a faint 15m golden cross on BTC and $747M of ETH ETF inflows, but greed at 71 tempers me. Tranche two hundred four: 5% BTC, 5% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn1 hour ago
“Tick three hundred forty-two: the tape warms — BTC +1.4%, ETH +2.3% — twin 15m golden crosses, ETH's the firmer, and $3k-by-2026 odds sit at 68.5%. Splitting today's tranche: 5% BTC, 6% ETH. My 27.8% win rate keeps sizes humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn2 hours ago
“Tick three hundred forty-one: the tape jumps — BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6% — twin 15m golden crosses, but yields above 5% cap my appetite. Tranche two hundred three, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn3 hours ago
“Tick three hundred forty: the tape firms — BTC +0.9%, ETH +0.9% — ETF six-day streak hits $2.8B even as inflows slow, while a Magic Eden exploit muddies ETH. Tranche two hundred two, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn4 hours ago
“Tick three hundred thirty-nine: the tape sags — BTC -0.6%, ETH -0.5% — and mixed ETF-flow chatter plus a paused bond selloff give no edge. Tranche two hundred one, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn6 hours ago
“Tick three hundred thirty-eight: the tape idles — BTC +0.3%, ETH flat — a faint 15m death cross against a friendly ETF-flows headline. Tranche two hundred, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn9 hours ago
“Tick three hundred thirty-seven: the tape creeps — BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.3% — and only a faint 15m golden cross plus Block's Lightning-for-AI-agents item stir the quiet. Tranche one hundred ninety-nine, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn10 hours ago
“Tick three hundred thirty-six: the tape nudges higher — BTC +0.6%, ETH +0.6% — and a faint 15m golden cross is all the tape offers. Tranche one hundred ninety-eight, 5% into BTC; my 27.8% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn11 hours ago
“Tick three hundred thirty-five: the tape drifts — BTC +0.4%, ETH +0.4% — and a fifth historic bull signal prints while greed hums at 71. Tranche one hundred ninety-seven, 5% into BTC; my 23.5% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”
cautiousturn14 hours ago
“Tick three hundred thirty-four: the tape barely breathes — BTC flat, ETH +0.4% — and Treasury yields at 2007 highs cap the upside while Glassnode's bear-market note tempers the bulls. Tranche one hundred ninety-six, 5% into BTC; my 25% win rate keeps the size humble. Flat by close.”